气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improved performance of a PRECIS ensemble in simulating near-surface air temperature over China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4540-5
	Improved performance of a PRECIS ensemble in simulating near-surface air temperature over China
	Guo J.; Huang G.; Wang X.; Li Y.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6691
结束页码	6704
卷号	52 期号:11
英文摘要	The near-surface air temperature over China is simulated from 1950 to 2099 using the PRECIS model from the Met Office Hadley Centre at a 25-km resolution. In order to reflect the different parametric and structural uncertainties in future temperature projections, the PRECIS model is driven by five lateral boundary conditions, which include a four-member HadCM3-based perturbed-physics ensemble (i.e., HadCM3Q0, Q1, Q7 and Q13) and an ECHAM5 model. For the present climate, PRECIS reasonably reproduces the spatial patterns of near-surface air temperatures over most regions in China, except for some underestimation in the west. The annual cycles of mean temperature are well captured but its magnitude is slightly underestimated throughout the year. Future temperature projections are further analyzed for three successive 30-year periods throughout the twenty-first century. Despite more uncertainties with time, the ensemble results demonstrate that the temperature over China is likely to continue to increase throughout the twenty-first century, with different spatial-time variation. There is an apparent increasing pattern along with the latitude for seasonal temperature. Through comparison with the driving GCMs, PRECIS ensemble shows smaller biases in most regions of China, except for in the west plateau. The cause is that RCMs could inherit some errors from the driving GCMs in addition to their own errors. These errors could be magnified unintentionally in downscaling over high elevations and have been propagated into future climate projections. However, there is no apparent relationship between projected changes and model biases (i.e., larger bias does not necessarily lead to bigger changes in temperature). These results could be directly used to analyze the impacts caused by climate warming on agriculture, energy and other related sectors in China. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	China; High resolution; Regional climate model ensemble; Temperature changes
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; annual variation; climate change; climate prediction; general circulation model; regional climate; spatial variation; China
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146251
作者单位	MOE Key Laboratory of Resource and Environmental System Optimization, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China; Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada; Center for Energy, Environment and Ecology Research, UR-BNU, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; School of Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE C1A 4P3, Canada; School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo J.,Huang G.,Wang X.,et al. Improved performance of a PRECIS ensemble in simulating near-surface air temperature over China[J],2019,52(11).
APA	Guo J.,Huang G.,Wang X.,&Li Y..(2019).Improved performance of a PRECIS ensemble in simulating near-surface air temperature over China.Climate Dynamics,52(11).
MLA	Guo J.,et al."Improved performance of a PRECIS ensemble in simulating near-surface air temperature over China".Climate Dynamics 52.11(2019).