气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Atmospheric rivers impacting Northern California and their modulation by a variable climate

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4532-5
	Atmospheric rivers impacting Northern California and their modulation by a variable climate
	Guirguis K.; Gershunov A.; Shulgina T.; Clemesha R.E.S.; Ralph F.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6569
结束页码	6583
卷号	52 期号:11
英文摘要	Understanding the role of climate variability in modulating the behavior of land-falling atmospheric rivers (ARs) is important for seasonal and subseasonal predictability for water resource management and flood control. We examine daily activity of ARs targeting the Northern California coast over six decades using observations of synoptic-scale circulation, high-resolution precipitation, and a long-term AR detection catalog to quantify distinct types of land-falling ARs categorized by their circulation features. We demonstrate how dramatically different atmospheric states evolve into landfalling ARs along distinct pathways that are modulated by interannual (El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and subseasonal (Arctic Oscillation, Pacific North American Pattern, Western Pacific Oscillation, and the Eastern Pacific Oscillation) modes of large-scale climate variability. Different configurations of climate variability modes are shown to favor ARs having different characteristics in terms of synoptic evolution, integrated vapor transport and landfall orientation resulting in different patterns of precipitation over the landscape. In particular, our results show that while ENSO plays an important role in modulating the synoptic evolution of ARs and their orientation at landfall, subseasonal regional climate modes, which also influence landfall orientation as well as the position of the storm track, appear to be more influential than ENSO in modulating precipitation variability in California. This could have implications for seasonal to subseasonal (S2S) forecasting. Finally, we examine AR activity over the most recent and highly anomalous winter 2016–2017 and show how the unprecedented wet conditions in Northern California were at least partly due to the persistence of ARs characterized by a southward storm track and southerly orientation, which represent the type of ARs associated with heavy rainfall in California, and which are associated with the negative phase of subseasonal regional teleconnection patterns. © 2018, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Arctic Oscillation; atmospheric circulation; atmospheric moisture; climate variation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; precipitation assessment; quantitative analysis; regional climate; seasonal variation; synoptic meteorology; California; United States
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146246
作者单位	Climate, Atmospheric Science and Physical Oceanography (CASPO) Research Division, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guirguis K.,Gershunov A.,Shulgina T.,et al. Atmospheric rivers impacting Northern California and their modulation by a variable climate[J],2019,52(11).
APA	Guirguis K.,Gershunov A.,Shulgina T.,Clemesha R.E.S.,&Ralph F.M..(2019).Atmospheric rivers impacting Northern California and their modulation by a variable climate.Climate Dynamics,52(11).
MLA	Guirguis K.,et al."Atmospheric rivers impacting Northern California and their modulation by a variable climate".Climate Dynamics 52.11(2019).