气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatial analysis of early-warning signals for a North Atlantic climate transition in a coupled GCM

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4567-7
	Spatial analysis of early-warning signals for a North Atlantic climate transition in a coupled GCM
	Klus A.; Prange M.; Varma V.; Schulz M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	97
结束页码	113
卷号	53 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	The climate system can potentially switch from one stable state to another. The closer a system is to a bifurcation point (i.e., ‘tipping point’), the more likely it is that even small perturbations can force the system to experience a state shift, e.g., a collapsing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated cooling in parts of the North Atlantic. Here, we present an abrupt state transition from a warm to a cold North Atlantic climate state with expanded sea ice during an orbitally forced transient Holocene simulation performed with the Community Climate System Model version 3. The state transition is associated with a weakening of the AMOC by about 33% in this simulation. The changing background climate induced by slow external orbital forcing plays an important role for the abrupt climate shift. The model allows the identification of regions and variables that play a key role for a potential climate transition and show early-warning signals. Increase in autocorrelation and standard deviation as well as trends in skewness especially for sea-surface salinity in the northern North Atlantic are identified as robust early-warning signals, whereas no early-warning signals are found in the time series of the AMOC stream function. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	AMOC; Climate transition; Early-warning signals; North Atlantic
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric general circulation model; climate change; early warning system; meridional circulation; overturn; sea ice; sea surface salinity; spatial analysis; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146214
作者单位	MARUM-Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Klus A.,Prange M.,Varma V.,et al. Spatial analysis of early-warning signals for a North Atlantic climate transition in a coupled GCM[J],2019,53(2020-01-02).
APA	Klus A.,Prange M.,Varma V.,&Schulz M..(2019).Spatial analysis of early-warning signals for a North Atlantic climate transition in a coupled GCM.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-01-02).
MLA	Klus A.,et al."Spatial analysis of early-warning signals for a North Atlantic climate transition in a coupled GCM".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-01-02(2019).