气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Detecting the statistical significance of the trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent: an indication for a turning point

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4579-3
	Detecting the statistical significance of the trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent: an indication for a turning point
	Ludescher J.; Yuan N.; Bunde A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	237
结束页码	244
卷号	53 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	In the past decades, the Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has been steadily increasing, but recently showed a sharp decline. Here we address the questions whether (1) the observed changes in the Antarctic SIE can be fully explained by natural variability and (2) whether the recent unprecedented decline in the SIEcan serve as an indication that the long-term positive trend has reached a turning point entailing further decline. To study these questions, we extended the analysis period of previous studies (until 2013) by considering data until May 2018 and applied a statistical model which accurately reflects the natural variability of the SIE. Contrary to earlier detection studies we find that none of the annual trends of the SIE in whole Antarctica and its five sectors are statistically significant. When studying the seasonal changes, we find that the only trends in the Antarctic SIE that cannot be explained by natural variability and are probably tied to the warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, are the negative trends of the SIE in austral autumn (p= 0.043) and February (p= 0.012) in the Bellinghausen and Amundsen Seas (BellAm). In contrast, when the recent decline is omitted from the analysis and only data until 2015 are included, the (annual and seasonal) increases of the SIE in whole Antarctica and the Ross Sea become significant, while the significance of the decreasing trends in BellAm is slightly decreased. We consider this as a first indication that the Antarctic SIE may have reached a turning point towards a further decrease. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Antarctica; Natural variability; Sea ice extent
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; autumn; numerical model; sea ice; seasonal variation; trend analysis; Amundsen Sea; Antarctica; Ross Sea; Southern Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146206
作者单位	Institute for Theoretical Physics, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 16, Giessen, 35392, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ludescher J.,Yuan N.,Bunde A.. Detecting the statistical significance of the trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent: an indication for a turning point[J],2019,53(2020-01-02).
APA	Ludescher J.,Yuan N.,&Bunde A..(2019).Detecting the statistical significance of the trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent: an indication for a turning point.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-01-02).
MLA	Ludescher J.,et al."Detecting the statistical significance of the trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent: an indication for a turning point".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-01-02(2019).