气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4584-6
	Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate
	Rigal A.; Azaïs J.-M.; Ribes A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	275
结束页码	286
卷号	53 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Climatological normals are widely used baselines for the description and the characterization of a given meteorological situation. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standard recommends estimating climatological normals as the average of observations over a 30-year period. This approach may lead to strongly biased normals in a changing climate. Here we propose a new method with which to estimate daily climatological normals in a non-stationary climate. Our statistical framework relies on the assumption that the response to climate change is smooth over time, and on a decomposition of the response inspired by the pattern scaling assumption. Estimation is carried out using smoothing splines techniques, with a careful examination of the selection of smoothing parameters. The new method is compared, in a predictive sense and in a perfect model framework, to previously proposed alternatives such as the WMO standard (reset either on a decadal or annual basis), averages over shorter periods, and hinge fits. Results show that our technique outperforms all alternatives considered. They confirm that previously proposed techniques are substantially biased—biases are typically as large as a few tenths to more than 1∘C by the end of the century—while our method is not. We argue that such “climate change corrected” normals might be very useful for climate monitoring, and that weather services could consider using two different sets of normals (i.e. both stationary and non-stationary) for different purposes. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Daily climate normals; Normals accounting for climate change; Smoothing splines; Unbiased estimate
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climatology; decomposition analysis; diurnal variation; estimation method; smoothing
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146202
作者单位	CNRM, UMR3589, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France; Institut de Mathématiques, Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse Cedex 09, 31062, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rigal A.,Azaïs J.-M.,Ribes A.. Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate[J],2019,53(2020-01-02).
APA	Rigal A.,Azaïs J.-M.,&Ribes A..(2019).Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-01-02).
MLA	Rigal A.,et al."Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-01-02(2019).