气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projection of West African summer monsoon rainfall in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 models

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4568-6
	Projection of West African summer monsoon rainfall in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 models
	Akinsanola A.A.; Zhou W.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	81
结束页码	95
卷号	53 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	West Africa faces an increasing challenge related to water resources in the coming decades; hence high-confidence climate projection is crucial for the region’s future. In this study, future changes in summer monsoon rainfall under the RCP8.5 scenario were investigated over West Africa for the period of 2074–2099 with respect to the present-day period of 1980–2005 using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA4), driven by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global circulation models (GCMs). Through evaluation of the present climate, the RCA4 simulations and their multi-model ensemble mean (EnsMean) reasonably reproduced the climatology of the summer rainfall and associated tropospheric circulation features. In a warmer climate, summer monsoon rainfall is projected to increase in most parts of West Africa, but a decrease is expected in the northwest, around Senegal. Changes in the monsoon circulation are opposite in the lower and upper troposphere, with the tipping point at 400 hPa. Specifically, a projected strengthening and northward shift is observed at the lower and mid-tropospheric level, while weakening is evident at the upper tropospheric level. A diagnosis based on a moisture budget equation reveals that the robust positive response of West African summer monsoon rainfall to global warming is largely explained by the enhancement of moisture convergence and surface evaporation. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	African easterly jet; Climate change; Dynamical downscaling; Global warming; Monsoon; Tropical easterly jet
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; CMIP; downscaling; global warming; jet stream; monsoon; rainfall; summer; troposphere; Senegal
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146199
作者单位	Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Akinsanola A.A.,Zhou W.. Projection of West African summer monsoon rainfall in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 models[J],2019,53(2020-01-02).
APA	Akinsanola A.A.,&Zhou W..(2019).Projection of West African summer monsoon rainfall in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 models.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-01-02).
MLA	Akinsanola A.A.,et al."Projection of West African summer monsoon rainfall in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 models".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-01-02(2019).