气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): NAO implicated as a predictor of the surface air temperature multidecadal variability over East Asia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04624-4
	NAO implicated as a predictor of the surface air temperature multidecadal variability over East Asia
	Xie T.; Li J.; Sun C.; Ding R.; Wang K.; Zhao C.; Feng J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	895
结束页码	905
卷号	53 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Surface air temperature is an important factor for human quality of life and is a key marker of global climate change. Understanding multidecadal changes in surface air temperature, and accurately predicting future trends, are therefore important for economic development. In this work, we explore multidecadal variability in East Asian surface air temperature (EASAT). We find that EASAT shows a strong multidecadal variability between 1900 and 2017. Observational analysis shows that annual EASAT multidecadal variability is highly associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and the NAO leads detrended annual EASAT by 15–20 years. Further analysis illustrates that the NAO precedes annual EASAT multidecadal variability through its leading effect on the Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The AMO influences annual EASAT multidecadal variability through the Africa–Asia multidecadal teleconnection (AAMT) pattern. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict annual EASAT. The model is able to better hindcast annual EASAT based on different periods of the time-series. Due to the joint influences of NAO multidecadal variability and the forcing associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, annual EASAT for 2018–2034 is predicted to remain at its current level or even slightly lower, followed by a period of fast warming over the following decades. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Africa–Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern; Atlantic multidecadal oscillation; East Asian surface air temperature; North Atlantic oscillation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; atmospheric forcing; climate change; decadal variation; hindcasting; North Atlantic Oscillation; teleconnection; time series; trend analysis; warming; Far East
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146175
作者单位	College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266237, China; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie T.,Li J.,Sun C.,et al. NAO implicated as a predictor of the surface air temperature multidecadal variability over East Asia[J],2019,53(2020-01-02).
APA	Xie T..,Li J..,Sun C..,Ding R..,Wang K..,...&Feng J..(2019).NAO implicated as a predictor of the surface air temperature multidecadal variability over East Asia.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-01-02).
MLA	Xie T.,et al."NAO implicated as a predictor of the surface air temperature multidecadal variability over East Asia".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-01-02(2019).