气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04633-3
	Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains
	Morrill C.; Meador E.; Livneh B.; Liefert D.T.; Shuman B.N.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1077
结束页码	1094
卷号	53 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Recently-developed Holocene lake-level reconstructions from the Rocky Mountains offer a quantitative target for testing the skill of state-of-the-art climate system models in simulating hydroclimate change. Here, we use a combination of hydrologic models of catchment streamflow, lake energy balance, and lake water balance to simulate lake level at Little Windy Hill Pond (LWH) in the Medicine Bow Range of Wyoming for a period of severe drought during the mid-Holocene (MH; approximately 6000 years ago). Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) output to drive our hydrologic models, we find that none of our simulations reproduce the significantly lowered lake levels at LWH during the MH. Rather, simulated hydroclimate changes for the MH are modest (< 10% reductions in precipitation and streamflow and generally 10–30% increases in lake evaporation), and LWH lake-level changes are buffered by the large volume of snowmelt runoff that the lake receives. Only when winter precipitation is approximately halved in sensitivity experiments do water inputs to the lake become small enough that lake level can be significantly drawn down by year-over-year negative water balances. Possible explanations for the model-data mismatch could lie in the realism of our hydrological modeling framework or in the accuracy of the CMIP5 output, the latter having important implications for projections of future drying in western North America. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Drought; Holocene; Lake level; North America; Streamflow; Water balance
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; climate variation; drought; Holocene; hydrological modeling; lake level; lake water; paleoclimate; quantitative analysis; streamflow; water budget; Rocky Mountains
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146162
作者单位	Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; Earth Sciences Department, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1272, United States; Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Morrill C.,Meador E.,Livneh B.,et al. Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains[J],2019,53(2020-01-02).
APA	Morrill C.,Meador E.,Livneh B.,Liefert D.T.,&Shuman B.N..(2019).Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-01-02).
MLA	Morrill C.,et al."Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-01-02(2019).