气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part 1: establishing the relationship between errors at weather and climate time scales

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04625-3
	Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part 1: establishing the relationship between errors at weather and climate time scales
	Sexton D.M.H.; Karmalkar A.V.; Murphy J.M.; Williams K.D.; Boutle I.A.; Morcrette C.J.; Stirling A.J.; Vosper S.B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	989
结束页码	1022
卷号	53 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	The main aim of this two-part study is to use a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) to select plausible and diverse variants of a relatively expensive climate model for use in climate projections. In this first part, the extent to which climate biases develop at weather forecast timescales is assessed with two PPEs, which are based on 5-day forecasts and 10-year simulations with a relatively coarse resolution (N96) atmosphere-only model. Both ensembles share common parameter combinations and strong emergent relationships are found for a wide range of variables between the errors on two timescales. These relationships between the PPEs are demonstrated at several spatial scales from global (using mean square errors), to regional (using pattern correlations), and to individual grid boxes where a large fraction of them show positive correlations. The study confirms more robustly than in previous studies that investigating the errors on weather timescales provides an affordable way to identify and filter out model variants that perform poorly at short timescales and are likely to perform poorly at longer timescales too. The use of PPEs also provides additional information for model development, by identifying parameters and processes responsible for model errors at the two different timescales, and systematic errors that cannot be removed by any combination of parameter values. © 2019, Crown.
英文关键词	Elicitation; Model development; Perturbed parameter ensembles; Sensitivity analysis; Transpose AMIP
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric modeling; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; error analysis; parameterization; sensitivity analysis; timescale
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146156
作者单位	Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sexton D.M.H.,Karmalkar A.V.,Murphy J.M.,et al. Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part 1: establishing the relationship between errors at weather and climate time scales[J],2019,53(2020-01-02).
APA	Sexton D.M.H..,Karmalkar A.V..,Murphy J.M..,Williams K.D..,Boutle I.A..,...&Vosper S.B..(2019).Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part 1: establishing the relationship between errors at weather and climate time scales.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-01-02).
MLA	Sexton D.M.H.,et al."Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part 1: establishing the relationship between errors at weather and climate time scales".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-01-02(2019).