气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Near-future tropical cyclone predictions in the western North Pacific: fewer tropical storms but more typhoons

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04647-x
	Near-future tropical cyclone predictions in the western North Pacific: fewer tropical storms but more typhoons
	Choi W.; Ho C.-H.; Kim J.; Chan J.C.L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1341
结束页码	1356
卷号	53 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	This study presents forecasts of near-future tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) using a TC track-pattern-based prediction model in conjunction with long-term free-run simulations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System. The prediction shows that the East Asian coastal area will be affected by fewer TC landfalls. However, the number of stronger TC landfalls may increase in the near future (2016–2030) compared to the present-day period (2002–2015). The potential candidates for modulating the near-future TC activity are three large-scale climate variability: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Pacific sea surface temperature (NPSST) variation, and basin-wide warming of the Pacific. More frequent El Niño episodes in the near future may contribute to the activation of TC formations in the far-eastern tropical ocean, which generates a favorable influence on TC intensification due to longer distances and development periods over the ocean. NPSST variations have contrasting effects, i.e., they have unfavorable effects on TC genesis due to weak vorticity, while creating favorable conditions for TC intensification by providing more humid environments in the subtropics. The impact of overall Pacific warming on the changes in TC activities is low compared to that of the other two factors. Our results physically demonstrate the contributions of three WNP sea surface temperature variability on near-future TC activity, emphasizing the critical roles of ENSO and NPSST rather than the near-term warming effect. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Near-future prediction; North Pacific; Pacific warming; Sea surface temperature; Tropical cyclone; Western North Pacific
语种	英语
scopus关键词	computer simulation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; future prospect; global warming; numerical model; prediction; sea surface temperature; storm track; tropical cyclone; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146144
作者单位	School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 08826, South Korea; National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, South Korea; Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Kowloon, Hong Kong
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Choi W.,Ho C.-H.,Kim J.,et al. Near-future tropical cyclone predictions in the western North Pacific: fewer tropical storms but more typhoons[J],2019,53(2020-03-04).
APA	Choi W.,Ho C.-H.,Kim J.,&Chan J.C.L..(2019).Near-future tropical cyclone predictions in the western North Pacific: fewer tropical storms but more typhoons.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-03-04).
MLA	Choi W.,et al."Near-future tropical cyclone predictions in the western North Pacific: fewer tropical storms but more typhoons".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-03-04(2019).