气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring reconstruction of the winter NAO index since 910 C.E.

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04696-2
	A Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring reconstruction of the winter NAO index since 910 C.E.
	Cook E.R.; Kushnir Y.; Smerdon J.E.; Williams A.P.; Anchukaitis K.J.; Wahl E.R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1567
结束页码	1580
卷号	53 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	We develop a new reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index using a network of 97 Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring series. The reconstruction covers the period 910–2018 C.E., making it the longest annually resolved estimate of winter NAO variability available. We use nested correlation-weighted principal components regression and the Maximum Entropy Bootstrap method to generate a 2400-member ensemble of reconstructions for estimating the final reconstruction and its quantile uncertainties. Extensive validation testing of the new reconstruction against data withheld from the calibration exercise demonstrates its skill. The skill level of the new reconstruction is also an improvement over two NAO reconstructions published earlier. Spectral analyses indicate that the new reconstruction behaves like a ‘white noise’ process with intermittent band-limited power, suggesting that the winter NAO is stochastically forced. The ‘white noise’ properties of our reconstruction are also shown to be consistent with the spectral properties of long instrumental NAO indices extending back to 1781 and NAO indices extracted from a large number of forced climate model runs covering the last millennium. In contrast, an annually resolved multi-proxy NAO reconstruction of comparable length, based in part on speleothem data, behaves more like externally forced ‘red noise’ process, which is inconsistent with our reconstruction, long observations, and forced model runs. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Euro-Mediterranean tree rings; Millennium reconstruction; North Atlantic Oscillation; Stochastic forcing
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric forcing; bootstrapping; North Atlantic Oscillation; paleoclimate; reconstruction; stochasticity; tree ring; winter
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146135
作者单位	Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; School of Geography and Development and Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States; World Data Service for Paleoclimatology, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 325 Broadway Street, Boulder, CO 80305, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cook E.R.,Kushnir Y.,Smerdon J.E.,et al. A Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring reconstruction of the winter NAO index since 910 C.E.[J],2019,53(2020-03-04).
APA	Cook E.R.,Kushnir Y.,Smerdon J.E.,Williams A.P.,Anchukaitis K.J.,&Wahl E.R..(2019).A Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring reconstruction of the winter NAO index since 910 C.E..Climate Dynamics,53(2020-03-04).
MLA	Cook E.R.,et al."A Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring reconstruction of the winter NAO index since 910 C.E.".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-03-04(2019).