气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04719-y
	Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models
	Lim Y.; Son S.-W.; Marshall A.G.; Hendon H.H.; Seo K.-H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1681
结束页码	1695
卷号	53 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Recent studies have shown that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is significantly modulated by the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). In general, boreal winter MJO becomes more active during the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) than during the westerly phase (WQBO). Based on this finding, here we examine the possible impacts of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the operational models that participated in the WCRP/WWRP subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. All models show a higher MJO prediction skill during EQBO winters than during WQBO winters. For the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.5, the MJO prediction skill during EQBO winters is enhanced by up to 10 days. This enhancement is insensitive to the initial MJO amplitude, indicating that the improved MJO prediction skill is not simply the result of a stronger MJO. Instead, a longer persistence of the MJO during EQBO winters likely induces a higher prediction skill by having a higher prediction limit. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO); QBO–MJO link; Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO); Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction
语种	英语
scopus关键词	accuracy assessment; climate prediction; Madden-Julian oscillation; quasi-biennial oscillation; seasonal variation; stratosphere; weather forecasting; winter
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146134
作者单位	School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 08826, South Korea; Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lim Y.,Son S.-W.,Marshall A.G.,et al. Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models[J],2019,53(2020-03-04).
APA	Lim Y.,Son S.-W.,Marshall A.G.,Hendon H.H.,&Seo K.-H..(2019).Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-03-04).
MLA	Lim Y.,et al."Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-03-04(2019).