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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04752-x
	Variability of Indian summer monsoon droughts in CMIP5 climate models
	Preethi B.; Ramya R.; Patwardhan S.K.; Mujumdar M.; Kripalani R.H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1937
结束页码	1962
卷号	53 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Variability of Indian summer monsoon droughts is investigated by computing all-India drought indices namely Percent of Normal Precipitation, Standardized Precipitation Index and percentage area of India under moderate and severe drought conditions. Observations for recent decades, post 1960, exhibit declining trend in monsoon rainfall with frequent occurrence and intensification of droughts along with an increase in percentage of area under moderate and severe drought conditions, in association with variations in sea surface temperature (SST). Historical simulations from CMIP5 models suggest that two models, ACCESS1.0 and INMCM4, could well simulate monsoon rainfall variability, particularly the frequent occurrence of droughts and spatial variability of rainfall during drought years in recent historical period (1961–2005). Future projections of all-India drought indices from these two models indicate frequent droughts during near and mid future (2010–2069) with respect to the recent historical period. Intensification of severe droughts for near and mid future are suggested to be more pronounced over north-central India. The reduction in rainfall in the near and mid future is dynamically consistent with a westward shift in large-scale monsoon circulation, particularly the monsoon trough over South Asia. Interestingly, future projections of monsoon teleconnections indicate a weakening (strengthening) of in-phase (out-of-phase) relationship of all-India drought intensity with the equatorial eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean (western Pacific) SST. Whereas, a strengthening of in-phase relationship between percentage of area under drought conditions and the equatorial eastern Pacific SST is projected for near and mid future with respect to the recent historical period. These drought features are consistent in both the models. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Droughts; Indian summer monsoon; Teleconnections; Variability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; climate variation; drought; future prospect; monsoon; precipitation (climatology); sea surface temperature; standard (reference); summer; teleconnection; India; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (East); Pacific Ocean (Equatorial); Pacific Ocean (West)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146123
作者单位	Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India; Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi, India; Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Preethi B.,Ramya R.,Patwardhan S.K.,et al. Variability of Indian summer monsoon droughts in CMIP5 climate models[J],2019,53(2020-03-04).
APA	Preethi B.,Ramya R.,Patwardhan S.K.,Mujumdar M.,&Kripalani R.H..(2019).Variability of Indian summer monsoon droughts in CMIP5 climate models.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-03-04).
MLA	Preethi B.,et al."Variability of Indian summer monsoon droughts in CMIP5 climate models".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-03-04(2019).