气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04820-2
	Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave
	Harrington L.J.; Otto F.E.L.; Cowan T.; Hegerl G.C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2229
结束页码	2247
卷号	53 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	The science of extreme event attribution has rapidly expanded in recent years, with numerous studies dedicated to determining whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change has increased the likelihood of specific extreme weather events occurring. However, the majority of such studies have focussed on extreme events which have occurred in the recent past (usually within the past 10 years) while minimal research efforts have considered the multitude of high-impact extreme climatic events which occurred throughout the instrumental record. This study proposes a framework to quantify how the likelihood of witnessing meteorological characteristics reminiscent of the 1947 Central European heatwave have evolved over time. We specifically examine circulation analogues as a tool to understand the relative role of dynamical and thermodynamic contributions to changes in the probability of experiencing similar heatwave events. Using a reanalysis-based dataset, our results show changes in the frequency of 1947-like extreme heat throughout the twentieth century to be highly sensitive to methodological choices, particularly in the context of disaggregating dynamic and thermodynamic changes in the risk of extreme heat. Evidence also suggests clear decadal variability in the occurrence of circulation patterns conducive to the 1947 heatwaves. Finally, we discuss how to appropriately consider the time-evolution of attribution statements, as well as the broader limitations of employing circulation analogues as a method to interrogate the dynamical contribution to the probability ratio of an extreme event. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Circulation analogues; Climate change; Extreme weather events; Heatwaves; Signal-to-noise ratios
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric circulation; atmospheric dynamics; climate change; extreme event; heat wave; probability; temporal evolution; thermodynamics; twentieth century; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146101
作者单位	Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, James Hutton Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FE, United Kingdom; University of Southern Queensland and The Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St, Melbourne, 3008, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Harrington L.J.,Otto F.E.L.,Cowan T.,et al. Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave[J],2019,53(2020-03-04).
APA	Harrington L.J.,Otto F.E.L.,Cowan T.,&Hegerl G.C..(2019).Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-03-04).
MLA	Harrington L.J.,et al."Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-03-04(2019).