气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying the range of future glacier mass change projections caused by differences among observed past-climate datasets

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04868-0
	Quantifying the range of future glacier mass change projections caused by differences among observed past-climate datasets
	Watanabe M.; Yanagawa A.; Watanabe S.; Hirabayashi Y.; Kanae S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2425
结束页码	2435
卷号	53 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Observed past climate data used as input in glacier models are expected to differ among datasets, particularly those for precipitation at high elevations. Differences among observed past climate datasets have not yet been described as a cause of uncertainty in projections of future changes in glacier mass, although uncertainty caused by varying future climate projections among general circulation models (GCMs) has often been discussed. Differences among observed past climate datasets are expected to propagate as uncertainty in future changes in glacier mass due to bias correction of GCMs and calibration of glacier models. We project ensemble future changes in the mass of glaciers in Asia through the year 2100 using a glacier model. A set of 18 combinations of inputs, including two observed past air temperature datasets, three observed past precipitation datasets, and future air temperature and precipitation projections from three GCMs were used. The uncertainty in projected changes in glacier mass was partitioned into three distinct sources: GCM uncertainty, observed past air temperature uncertainty, and observed past-precipitation uncertainty. Our findings indicate that, in addition to the differences in climate projections among GCMs, differences among observed past climate datasets propagate fractional uncertainties of about 15% into projected changes in glacier mass. The fractional uncertainty associated with observed past precipitation was 33–50% that of the observed air temperature. Differences in observed past air temperatures and precipitation did not propagate equally into the ultimate uncertainty of glacier mass projection when ablation was dominant. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Air temperature; Bias correction; Calibration; Glacier model; Precipitation; Propagation of uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; calibration; correction; data set; glacier mass balance; paleoclimate; precipitation (climatology); quantitative analysis; uncertainty analysis; Asia
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146089
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1, O-okayama Meguro-ku, Tokyo, 152-8552, Japan; Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba Meguro-ku, Tokyo, 153-8505, Japan; School of Science and Engineering, Meisei University, 2-1-1 Hodokubo, Hino, Tokyo, 191-8506, Japan; School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8656, Japan; Department of Civil Engineering, Shibaura Institute of Technology, 3-7-5 Toyosu, Koto-ku, Tokyo, 135-8548, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Watanabe M.,Yanagawa A.,Watanabe S.,et al. Quantifying the range of future glacier mass change projections caused by differences among observed past-climate datasets[J],2019,53(2020-03-04).
APA	Watanabe M.,Yanagawa A.,Watanabe S.,Hirabayashi Y.,&Kanae S..(2019).Quantifying the range of future glacier mass change projections caused by differences among observed past-climate datasets.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-03-04).
MLA	Watanabe M.,et al."Quantifying the range of future glacier mass change projections caused by differences among observed past-climate datasets".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-03-04(2019).