气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04661-z
	Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea
	Darmaraki S.; Somot S.; Sevault F.; Nabat P.; Cabos Narvaez W.D.; Cavicchia L.; Djurdjevic V.; Li L.; Sannino G.; Sein D.V.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1371
结束页码	1392
卷号	53 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), have been observed to perturb significantly marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world. Here, we propose a detection method for long-lasting and large-scale summer MHWs, using a local, climatological 99th percentile threshold, based on present-climate (1976–2005) daily SST. To assess their future evolution in the Mediterranean Sea we use, for the first time, a dedicated ensemble of fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models from the Med-CORDEX initiative and a multi-scenario approach. The models appear to simulate well MHW properties during historical period, despite biases in mean and extreme SST. In response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing, the events become stronger and more intense under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. By 2100 and under RCP8.5, simulations project at least one long-lasting MHW every year, up to three months longer, about 4 times more intense and 42 times more severe than present-day events. They are expected to occur from June-October and to affect at peak the entire basin. Their evolution is found to occur mainly due to an increase in the mean SST, but increased daily SST variability also plays a noticeable role. Until the mid-21st century, MHW characteristics rise independently of the choice of the emission scenario, the influence of which becomes more evident by the end of the period. Further analysis reveals different climate change responses in certain configurations, more likely linked to their driving global climate model rather than to the individual model biases. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate simulations; Coupled regional climate models; Extreme ocean temperatures; Future scenario; Marine Heatwaves; Med-CORDEX; Mediterranean Sea
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate forcing; climate modeling; computer simulation; future prospect; greenhouse gas; heat wave; marine atmosphere; numerical model; regional climate; Mediterranean Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146080
作者单位	CNRM, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, UMR 3589, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 42 Avenue Coriolis, Toulouse, 31057, France; Department of Physics and Mathematics, UAH, University of Alcalá, Madrid, Spain; CMCC, Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy; Faculty of Physics, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 12, Belgrade, Serbia; LMD Laboratoire de Meteorology Dynamique, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie (Paris 6), Paris, France; ENEA, via Anguillarese 301, Rome, 00123, Italy; Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Bremerhaven, 27568, Germany; Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Science, 36 Nahimovskiy Prospect, Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Darmaraki S.,Somot S.,Sevault F.,et al. Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea[J],2019,53(2020-03-04).
APA	Darmaraki S..,Somot S..,Sevault F..,Nabat P..,Cabos Narvaez W.D..,...&Sein D.V..(2019).Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-03-04).
MLA	Darmaraki S.,et al."Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-03-04(2019).