气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04653-z
	Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century
	Han F.; Cook K.H.; Vizy E.K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2757
结束页码	2777
卷号	53 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	A statistical framework for evaluating changes in extreme events is proposed and applied to evaluate a 20-member, regional climate model ensemble simulation with 30-km resolution. The model is found to represent the statistics and distributions of extreme events, including observed wet day characteristics, wet/dry days, and wet/dry spell characteristics, reasonably across Africa. Simulations of the mid-twenty-first and late-twenty-first century project statistically-significant changes in these societally-relevant climate characteristics in three regions. Intensification of rainfall is projected for the Sahel rainy season, including large increases in wet spell frequency, wet spell duration, and wet spell intensity. These changes are statistically significant at mid-twenty-first century and become more spatially robust by the end of the century. A weaker intensified rainfall trend is also projected over East Africa, for northern Ethiopia in boreal summer, Tanzania in boreal winter, and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Lake Victoria region in boreal fall. The changes are significant in scattered regions at mid-twenty-first century, but widespread and highly significant by the end of the century. In contrast, increased dry periods is projected for parts of southern Africa (Angola, Zambia, Malawi), including 50–100% reductions in wet spell frequency annually and increases in dry spell duration in austral spring. The spatial coherence and rigorous statistical analysis of the projected changes combined with their physical consistency with the findings of previous studies support confidence in these results. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	African climate projection; Drought; East Africa climate change; Extreme events; Sahel climate change; Sahel rainfall; Southern Africa climate change
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; drought; extreme event; rainfall; regional climate; twenty first century; East African Lakes; Ethiopia; Lake Victoria; Malawi; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]; Somalia; Zambia
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146071
作者单位	Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Han F.,Cook K.H.,Vizy E.K.. Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century[J],2019,53(2020-05-06).
APA	Han F.,Cook K.H.,&Vizy E.K..(2019).Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-05-06).
MLA	Han F.,et al."Changes in intense rainfall events and dry periods across Africa in the twenty-first century".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-05-06(2019).