气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected future changes in Marine Cold-Air Outbreaks associated with Polar Lows in the Northern North-Atlantic Ocean

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04642-2
	Projected future changes in Marine Cold-Air Outbreaks associated with Polar Lows in the Northern North-Atlantic Ocean
	Landgren O.A.; Seierstad I.A.; Iversen T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	2573
结束页码	2585
卷号	53 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	Marine Cold-Air Outbreaks (MCAO) can be used as a large-scale measure of the potential for development of Polar Lows in the Northern North Atlantic Ocean during NH winter. We applied an MCAO index to 30 members of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble to investigate model-projected future changes in the Nordic and Barents Seas in response to anthropogenic climate change. In agreement with previous studies we found an overall decrease in the MCAO index due to increased tropospheric static stability. We also found a changed seasonal profile, with a stronger decrease in December–January than in February–March, effectively leading to the peak occurring in February rather than January in the Nordic Seas. In the Barents Sea, the reductions were only statistically significant in the autumn and spring, with the winter reduction due to increased static stability was partly balanced by a retracting sea-ice edge. The contribution from circulation changes in mean sea-level pressure was assessed by a cluster analysis in lower-dimensional phase-space, spanned by the projections onto the four leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions. While there was a small but statistically significant increase of the Atlantic Ridge-like pattern, the overall changes in MCAO were dominated by changes in temperature at the sea surface and aloft. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Barents Sea; Cold-Air Outbreak; Future climate variability; GIN Seas; Large ensemble
语种	英语
scopus关键词	cold air; empirical orthogonal function analysis; ensemble forecasting; future prospect; marine atmosphere; sea surface temperature; troposphere; weather forecasting; winter; Arctic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Barents Sea; Norwegian Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146059
作者单位	Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Henrik Mohns plass 1, Oslo, 0313, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Landgren O.A.,Seierstad I.A.,Iversen T.. Projected future changes in Marine Cold-Air Outbreaks associated with Polar Lows in the Northern North-Atlantic Ocean[J],2019,53(2020-05-06).
APA	Landgren O.A.,Seierstad I.A.,&Iversen T..(2019).Projected future changes in Marine Cold-Air Outbreaks associated with Polar Lows in the Northern North-Atlantic Ocean.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-05-06).
MLA	Landgren O.A.,et al."Projected future changes in Marine Cold-Air Outbreaks associated with Polar Lows in the Northern North-Atlantic Ocean".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-05-06(2019).