气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04692-6
	Impact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone
	Dutheil C.; Bador M.; Lengaigne M.; Lefèvre J.; Jourdain N.C.; Vialard J.; Jullien S.; Peltier A.; Menkes C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3197
结束页码	3219
卷号	53 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is poorly represented in global coupled simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), with trademark biases such as the tendency to form a “double Intertropical convergence zone” and an equatorial cold tongue that extends too far westward. Such biases limit our confidence in projections of the future climate change for this region. In this study, we use a downscaling strategy based on a regional atmospheric general circulation model that accurately captures the SPCZ present-day climatology and interannual variability. More specifically, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected rainfall response to either just correcting present-day CMIP5 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) biases or correcting projected SST changes using an emergent constraint approach. While the equatorial western Pacific projected rainfall increase is robust in our experiments and CMIP5, correcting the projected CMIP5 SST changes yields a considerably larger reduction (~ 25%) than in CMIP5 simulations (~ + 3%) in the southwestern Pacific. Indeed, correcting the projected CMIP5 warming pattern yields stronger projected SST gradients, and more humidity convergence reduction under the SPCZ. Finally, our bias-corrected set of experiments yields an increase in equatorial rainfall and SPCZ variability in the future, but does not support the future increase in the frequency of zonal SPCZ events simulated by CMIP5 models. This study hence suggests that atmospheric downscaling studies should not only correct CMIP5 present-day SST biases but also projected SST changes to improve the reliability of their projections. Additional simulations with different physical parameterizations yield robust results. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Precipitation; Regional climate models; Sea Surface Temperature; South Pacific Convergence Zone
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; atmospheric general circulation model; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; downscaling; parameterization; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; relative humidity; sea surface temperature; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (South); Pacific Ocean (West)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146037
作者单位	IRD (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement)-Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Université Paris 06)-CNRS-MNHN-IPSL, LOCEAN Laboratory, IRD Nouméa BP A5, Nouméa, New Caledonia 98848, France; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of BEES, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; LOCEAN-IPSL, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC, Université Paris 06, CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France; University of Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, France; Ifremer, University of Brest, CNRS, IRD, Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), IUEM, Plouzané, France; Météo France, Nouméa, Nouvelle Calédonie, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dutheil C.,Bador M.,Lengaigne M.,et al. Impact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone[J],2019,53(2020-05-06).
APA	Dutheil C..,Bador M..,Lengaigne M..,Lefèvre J..,Jourdain N.C..,...&Menkes C..(2019).Impact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-05-06).
MLA	Dutheil C.,et al."Impact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-05-06(2019).