气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Southern African summer-rainfall variability; and its teleconnections; on interannual to interdecadal timescales in CMIP5 models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04720-5
	Southern African summer-rainfall variability; and its teleconnections; on interannual to interdecadal timescales in CMIP5 models
	Dieppois B.; Pohl B.; Crétat J.; Eden J.; Sidibe M.; New M.; Rouault M.; Lawler D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3505
结束页码	3527
卷号	53 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	This study provides the first assessment of CMIP5 model performances in simulating southern Africa (SA) rainfall variability in austral summer (Nov–Feb), and its teleconnections with large-scale climate variability at different timescales. Observed SA rainfall varies at three major timescales: interannual (2–8 years), quasi-decadal (8–13 years; QDV) and interdecadal (15–28 years; IDV). These rainfall fluctuations are, respectively, associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), interacting with climate anomalies in the South Atlantic and South Indian Ocean. CMIP5 models produce their own variability, but perform better in simulating interannual rainfall variability, while QDV and IDV are largely underestimated. These limitations can be partly explained by spatial shifts in core regions of SA rainfall variability in the models. Most models reproduce the impact of La Niña on rainfall at the interannual scale in SA, in spite of limitations in the representation of ENSO. Realistic links between negative IPO are found in some models at the QDV scale, but very poor performances are found at the IDV scale. Strong limitations, i.e. loss or reversal of these teleconnections, are also noted in some simulations. Such model errors, however, do not systematically impact the skill of simulated rainfall variability. This is because biased SST variability in the South Atlantic and South Indian Oceans strongly impact model skills by modulating the impact of Pacific modes of variability. Using probabilistic multi-scale clustering, model uncertainties in SST variability are primarily driven by differences from one model to another, or comparable models (sharing similar physics), at the global scale. At the regional scale, i.e. SA rainfall variability and associated teleconnections, while differences in model physics remain a large source of uncertainty, the contribution of internal climate variability is increasing. This is particularly true at the QDV and IDV scales, where the individual simulations from the same model tend to differentiate, and the sampling error increase. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CMIP5 models; Interannual to interdecadal timescales; Sea-surface temperature anomalies; Southern African rainfall variability; Teleconnections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; annual variation; climate modeling; decadal variation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; rainfall; sea surface temperature; summer; teleconnection; timescale; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (South); Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean (South); Southern Africa
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146028
作者单位	Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience (CAWR), Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom; Department of Oceanography, MARE Institute, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, UMR 6282 Biogéosciences, CNRS/Université de Bourgogne Franche Comté, Dijon, France; IPSL/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnment, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Nansen-Tutu Center for Marine Environmental Research, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dieppois B.,Pohl B.,Crétat J.,et al. Southern African summer-rainfall variability; and its teleconnections; on interannual to interdecadal timescales in CMIP5 models[J],2019,53(2020-05-06).
APA	Dieppois B..,Pohl B..,Crétat J..,Eden J..,Sidibe M..,...&Lawler D..(2019).Southern African summer-rainfall variability; and its teleconnections; on interannual to interdecadal timescales in CMIP5 models.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-05-06).
MLA	Dieppois B.,et al."Southern African summer-rainfall variability; and its teleconnections; on interannual to interdecadal timescales in CMIP5 models".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-05-06(2019).