气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The role of topography on projected rainfall change in mid-latitude mountain regions

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04736-x
	The role of topography on projected rainfall change in mid-latitude mountain regions
	Grose M.R.; Syktus J.; Thatcher M.; Evans J.P.; Ji F.; Rafter T.; Remenyi T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3675
结束页码	3690
卷号	53 期号:2020-05-06
英文摘要	Change to precipitation in a warming climate holds many implications for water management into the future, and an enhancement of a precipitation decrease or increase on or around mountains would have numerous impacts. Here, an intermediate resolution regional climate model (RCM) ensemble projects enhanced precipitation decrease on the windward slopes of over many mid-latitude mountains in winter, consistent with theory and model studies of idealised mountain ranges. This ensemble projects that an increase in convective rainfall determines the sign of total rainfall change in many regions in summer, only some of which are on or near mountains such as the European Alps. These same projected changes are present in inland slopes of the Australian Alps compared to surrounding regions as simulated by three RCM ensembles (the intermediate resolution and two high resolution ensembles), which agree on an enhanced precipitation decrease on the windward slopes in winter and spring, as well as an enhanced precipitation increase in summer driven by an increase in convective rainfall. The ensembles disagree on an enhanced precipitation decrease in autumn. The results represent regional-scale added value in the climate change signal of projections from high resolution models in cooler seasons, but suggest that the specific model components such as convection schemes strongly influence projections of summer rainfall change. Confidence in the simulation of change in convective rainfall, or convection-permitting modelling may be needed to raise confidence in summer rainfall projections over mountains. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Added value; Climate change; Rainfall; Regional climate models
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; regional climate; seasonal variation; topography; Australia; Australian Alps; Europe
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/146020
作者单位	CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Melbourne, Australia; Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Kensington, Australia; New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, Sydney, Australia; Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Grose M.R.,Syktus J.,Thatcher M.,et al. The role of topography on projected rainfall change in mid-latitude mountain regions[J],2019,53(2020-05-06).
APA	Grose M.R..,Syktus J..,Thatcher M..,Evans J.P..,Ji F..,...&Remenyi T..(2019).The role of topography on projected rainfall change in mid-latitude mountain regions.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-05-06).
MLA	Grose M.R.,et al."The role of topography on projected rainfall change in mid-latitude mountain regions".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-05-06(2019).