气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Skilful seasonal prediction of winter wind speeds in China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04763-8
	Skilful seasonal prediction of winter wind speeds in China
	Lockwood J.F.; Thornton H.E.; Dunstone N.; Scaife A.A.; Bett P.E.; Li C.; Ren H.-L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3937
结束页码	3955
卷号	53 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	We demonstrate robust skill in forecasting winter (DJF) mean 10 m wind speeds for the period 1992/3–2011/12 over south-eastern China and the South China Sea (SE China) and northern-central (NC) China, with correlations exceeding 0.8 and 0.6 respectively. High skill over these regions is seen in two independent initialised ensembles which cover different time periods. The NC China region suffers from a similar signal-to-noise problem as identified in forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation, where the model appears to be less predictable than the real world. In SE China, the predictability of wind speeds comes from the model’s ability to predict the El Niño Southern Oscillation. In NC China, the wind speed is strongly related to two neighbouring geopotential height anomalies. Cross-validated linear regression models using the above climate indices give similar skill to using the direct model wind predictions in both regions. The model also has significant skill in predicting the strength of the Middle Eastern jet stream, which has previously been shown to be related to winter climate in central China. The model skill demonstrated here may be high enough to develop useful sector-specific seasonal forecasts, for example wind power forecasts for the energy industry, or air quality forecasts for the health sector. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Asia; Forecast verification/skill; Seasonal forecasting; Wind
语种	英语
scopus关键词	El Nino-Southern Oscillation; jet stream; North Atlantic Oscillation; prediction; regression analysis; seasonal variation; weather forecasting; wind velocity; China; Pacific Ocean; South China Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145987
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lockwood J.F.,Thornton H.E.,Dunstone N.,et al. Skilful seasonal prediction of winter wind speeds in China[J],2019,53(2020-07-08).
APA	Lockwood J.F..,Thornton H.E..,Dunstone N..,Scaife A.A..,Bett P.E..,...&Ren H.-L..(2019).Skilful seasonal prediction of winter wind speeds in China.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-07-08).
MLA	Lockwood J.F.,et al."Skilful seasonal prediction of winter wind speeds in China".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-07-08(2019).