气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The contribution of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation shifts to future wind speed projections for wind power over Europe

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04776-3
	The contribution of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation shifts to future wind speed projections for wind power over Europe
	Gonzalez P.L.M.; Brayshaw D.J.; Zappa G.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4095
结束页码	4113
卷号	53 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	Wind power accounts for a large portion of the European energy mix (17% of total power capacity). European power systems therefore have a significant-and growing-exposure to near-surface wind speed changes. Despite this, future changes in European wind climate remain relatively poorly studied (compared to, e.g., temperature or precipitation), and there is limited understanding of the differences shown by different general and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs). This study provides a step towards a process-based understanding of European wind speed changes by isolating the component associated with ‘large-scale’ atmospheric circulation changes in the CMIP5 simulations. The component associated with the large-scale atmospheric circulation is found to explain cold season windiness projections in the free troposphere over Western Europe, with the changes reflecting the poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet. However, in most GCMs the projected wind speed changes near the surface are more negative than would be expected from the large-scale circulation alone. Thus, while the spread in CMIP5 21st century near surface wind speed projections is associated with divergent projections for the large-scale atmospheric circulation, there is a remarkably good agreement concerning a relative reduction in near-surface wind speeds. This analysis suggests that projected 21st century wind speed changes over Western Europe are the result of two distinct processes. The first is associated with changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, while the second is likely to be more local in its connection to the near-surface boundary layer. An improved process-based understanding of both is needed for enhancing confidence in wind-power projections on multi-decadal timescales. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; North Atlantic modes of variability; Surface wind projections; Western Europe; Wind power generation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric circulation; boundary layer; climate change; feasibility study; future prospect; general circulation model; power generation; regional climate; weather forecasting; wind power; wind velocity; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Western Europe
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145968
作者单位	Department of Meterology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gonzalez P.L.M.,Brayshaw D.J.,Zappa G.. The contribution of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation shifts to future wind speed projections for wind power over Europe[J],2019,53(2020-07-08).
APA	Gonzalez P.L.M.,Brayshaw D.J.,&Zappa G..(2019).The contribution of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation shifts to future wind speed projections for wind power over Europe.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-07-08).
MLA	Gonzalez P.L.M.,et al."The contribution of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation shifts to future wind speed projections for wind power over Europe".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-07-08(2019).