气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04831-z
	Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling
	Christensen J.H.; Larsen M.A.D.; Christensen O.B.; Drews M.; Stendel M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4857
结束页码	4869
卷号	53 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	How climate change will unfold in the years to come is a central topic in today’s environmental debate, in particular at the regional level. While projections using large ensembles of global climate models consistently indicate a future decrease in summer precipitation over southern Europe and an increase over northern Europe, individual models substantially modulate these distinct signals of change in precipitation. So far model improvements and higher resolution from regional downscaling have not been seen as able to resolve these disagreements. In this paper we assess whether 2 decades of investments in large ensembles of downscaling experiments with regional climate model simulations for Europe have contributed to a more robust model assessment of the future climate at a range of geographical scales. We study climate change projections of European seasonal temperature and precipitation using an ensemble-suite comprised by all readily available pan-European regional model projections for the twenty-first-century, representing increasing model resolution from ~ 50 to ~ 12 km grid distance, as well as lateral boundary and sea surface temperature conditions from a variety of global model simulations. Employing a simple scaling with global mean temperature change we identify emerging robust signals of future seasonal temperature and precipitation changes also found to resemble current observed trends, where these are judged to be statistically significant. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate projections; CORDEX; ENSEMBLES; Pattern scaling; PRUDENCE; Regional climate model ensembles
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate prediction; downscaling; ensemble forecasting; pattern recognition; precipitation assessment; regional climate; seasonal variation; Europe
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145956
作者单位	University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, Copenhagen Ø, 2100, Denmark; NORCE, Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bergen, Norway; Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen Ø, 2100, Denmark; Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet, Building 424, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Christensen J.H.,Larsen M.A.D.,Christensen O.B.,et al. Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling[J],2019,53(2020-07-08).
APA	Christensen J.H.,Larsen M.A.D.,Christensen O.B.,Drews M.,&Stendel M..(2019).Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-07-08).
MLA	Christensen J.H.,et al."Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-07-08(2019).