气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of climatological tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean in the CORDEX-South Asia regional climate models

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04852-8
	Assessment of climatological tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean in the CORDEX-South Asia regional climate models
	Vishnu S.; Sanjay J.; Krishnan R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5101
结束页码	5118
卷号	53 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	This study evaluates the ability of the regional climate models (RCMs) in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA) to simulate the tropical cyclone activity in the north Indian Ocean. The RCMs used in the CORDEX-SA are Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model version 4 (RCA4) and Regional Climatic Model version 4 (RegCM4) forced by the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) from 1989 to 2008. Both models have reasonable skill in capturing the observed climatological seasonal and spatial distribution of the genesis and track of the tropical cyclones. However, the two issues faced are (i) in RegCM4 model, higher number of tropical cyclones throughout the year compared to observations in addition to the unrealistic simulation of tropical cyclones during winter and (ii) in the RCA4 model, relatively higher tropical cyclone activity over the Arabian Sea compared to the Bay of Bengal. In the RCA4, the anomalous large-scale lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation observed over the southern Arabian Sea might be responsible for the overestimation in the number of tropical cyclones over there. In both models, the relationship between minimum pressure and the maximum wind is well simulated even though there is an underestimation in the intensity of the tropical cyclones. Quantitative analysis of large-scale environmental parameters that influence the tropical cyclone activity using an index called genesis potential index showed that in the RegCM4 model, the model simulates seasonal variation (enhancement/suppression) of environmental conditions fairly good as seen in the observation. However, the model has higher number of tropical cyclones in all the seasons, which is due to the enhanced large scale dynamical and thermodynamical parameters. The cold and wet bias in the middle troposphere causes the reduction in the mid-layer saturation deficit throughout the year, which in turn favours an unrealistic high number of tropical cyclone genesis. Therefore, the changes in the large scale dynamics and relatively saturated middle troposphere in the model might be responsible for the higher number of tropical cyclones. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CORDEX; Genesis potential index; Indian Ocean; Regional climate model; Tropical cyclone
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; climate modeling; regional climate; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; tropical cyclone; weather forecasting; Indian Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145938
作者单位	Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India; Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vishnu S.,Sanjay J.,Krishnan R.. Assessment of climatological tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean in the CORDEX-South Asia regional climate models[J],2019,53(2020-07-08).
APA	Vishnu S.,Sanjay J.,&Krishnan R..(2019).Assessment of climatological tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean in the CORDEX-South Asia regional climate models.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-07-08).
MLA	Vishnu S.,et al."Assessment of climatological tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean in the CORDEX-South Asia regional climate models".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-07-08(2019).