气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Near surface ocean temperature uncertainty related to initial condition uncertainty

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04872-4
	Near surface ocean temperature uncertainty related to initial condition uncertainty
	Tokmakian R.; Challenor P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	4683
结束页码	4700
卷号	53 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	Contributions to climate uncertainty in the modeling of the near surface temperature of the ocean come from several sources: the knowledge of the initial state of the atmosphere, the inadequacy of a model to include or correctly represent all aspects of the dynamics, the uncertain knowledge of the initial state of the ocean and small-scale (or internal, “weather”) noise. This paper concentrates on the latter uncertainty, the uncertainty in the knowledge of the initial field, resulting in a map of the uncertainty of the near surface temperature field. To make the full estimate of this uncertainty, the outcomes from a relatively small, 30 member, ensemble were expanded using statistical emulators. The uncertainty varies in space and decreases in time. There are broad areas of similar uncertainty, consistent with uncertainties in the initial conditions and the variability in local processes. After 10 years, the average spatial uncertainty calculated from this expanded data set gives a range of +/− 0.4 ∘C with 95% of the spatial areas having an uncertainty of less than +/− 0.9 ∘C. When compared to other estimates of similar metrics, the map represents a lower bound on the uncertainty because this first experiment examines the ocean/ice system in isolation from feedbacks that occur between the atmosphere and the ocean. This uncertainty also does not include any contribution from the lack of knowledge about how a future state of the air/ocean system will be forced by changes in greenhouse gases. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Emulators; GCM; Initial conditions; Ocean; Surface Temperature; Uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; data set; future prospect; general circulation model; spatiotemporal analysis; surface temperature; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145934
作者单位	Oc/tk, Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School, Bldg 232, Rm 328, Monterey, CA 93943, United States; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tokmakian R.,Challenor P.. Near surface ocean temperature uncertainty related to initial condition uncertainty[J],2019,53(2020-07-08).
APA	Tokmakian R.,&Challenor P..(2019).Near surface ocean temperature uncertainty related to initial condition uncertainty.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-07-08).
MLA	Tokmakian R.,et al."Near surface ocean temperature uncertainty related to initial condition uncertainty".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-07-08(2019).