气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future precipitation changes over Panama projected with the atmospheric global model MRI-AGCM3.2

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04842-w
	Future precipitation changes over Panama projected with the atmospheric global model MRI-AGCM3.2
	Kusunoki S.; Nakaegawa T.; Pinzón R.; Sanchez-Galan J.E.; Fábrega J.R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5019
结束页码	5034
卷号	53 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	Future change in precipitation over Panama was investigated with 20-km and 60-km mesh global atmospheric models. The present-day climate simulations were conducted for 21 years from 1983 through 2003, driving models by observed historical sea surface temperatures (SST). The future climate simulations were conducted for 21 years from 2079 through 2099, driving models by future SST distributions projected by the Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models that participated in the Fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The uncertainty of future precipitation change was evaluated by ensemble simulations giving four different SST patterns and three different cumulus convection schemes. In the future, precipitation increases over the central and eastern part of Panama from May to November corresponding to the rainy season. Uncertainty of future precipitation change depends on cumulus convection schemes rather than SST distributions. Increase of precipitation over most regions can be attributed to the increase of water vapor transport originated in the Caribbean Sea which converges over Panama. Precipitation averaged over the Panama canal, the Gatun lake and related river basin (79.0°–80.5°W, 8.5°–9.5°N) will increase during most of the rainy season persisting from May to October, while precipitation in dry season persisting from December to April does not change in the future. Intense precipitation increases, but the possibility of drought increases. These results suggest that the planning of water resource management for the Panama canal may require some modifications in the future. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Global warming projection; High resolution model; Panama; Precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric convection; atmospheric general circulation model; climate modeling; climate prediction; global warming; precipitation assessment; resolution; sea surface temperature; Panama [Central America]
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145933
作者单位	Global Atmosphere Ocean Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1, Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan; Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Osaka, Japan; Center for Hydraulic and Hydrotechnical Research (CIHH), Technological University of Panama, Panama, Panama; Agroindustrial Research and Production Center (CEPIA), Technological University of Panama, Panama, Panama; Institute of Advanced Scientific Research and High Technology (INDICASAT), Ciudad del Saber, Panama, Panama
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kusunoki S.,Nakaegawa T.,Pinzón R.,et al. Future precipitation changes over Panama projected with the atmospheric global model MRI-AGCM3.2[J],2019,53(2020-07-08).
APA	Kusunoki S.,Nakaegawa T.,Pinzón R.,Sanchez-Galan J.E.,&Fábrega J.R..(2019).Future precipitation changes over Panama projected with the atmospheric global model MRI-AGCM3.2.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-07-08).
MLA	Kusunoki S.,et al."Future precipitation changes over Panama projected with the atmospheric global model MRI-AGCM3.2".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-07-08(2019).