气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Coupling annual; monthly and daily weather generators to simulate multisite and multivariate climate variables with low-frequency variability for hydrological modelling

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04750-z
	Coupling annual; monthly and daily weather generators to simulate multisite and multivariate climate variables with low-frequency variability for hydrological modelling
	Chen J.; Arsenault R.; Brissette F.P.; Côté P.; Su T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	3841
结束页码	3860
卷号	53 期号:2020-07-08
英文摘要	Weather generators are usually used to produce an ensemble of climate time series for vulnerability assessments and impact studies in hydrological and agricultural communities. Multisite and multivariate weather generators (MMWGs) have many advantages over single-site counterparts in terms of coupling with distributed models for the assessment of spatial variability in various impact sectors. However, the existing MMWGs usually suffer from limitations in preserving multisite and multivariate dependencies at multiple time scales, as well as preserving the low-frequency variability of climate variables. This study proposes a new MMWG which preserves low-frequency climate variability by coupling annual, monthly and daily weather generators into a single model. Specifically, the daily precipitation and temperature time series generated by a widely used multisite daily weather generator is adjusted using monthly and annual climate time series generated by a first-order linear autoregressive model. This combination preserves the multisite and multivariate attributes, as well as low-frequency variability at monthly and annual scales. The performance of the proposed MMWG was evaluated by comparing the baseline model against that of its variants with monthly or annual adjustments for climate generation. The performance was also assessed using a hydrological model over two watersheds with different hydroclimatic characteristics. The results show that the proposed weather generator performs well with respect to reproducing the marginal distributional attributes, multisite and multivariate dependencies, and climate variability at the daily, monthly and annual scales. Weather generators with either monthly or annual adjustments (and not both) only improve the simulations in multisite and multivariate dependencies and low-frequency variability at the corresponding time scales. In terms of hydrological modeling, the proposed model consistently performs better than the baseline model and its variants with only monthly or annual adjustments in representing the mean and variance of monthly and annual streamflows. It also performs better in representing the frequency distribution of mean and extreme streamflow events. Overall, the proposed MMWG can effectively produce multisite and multivariate climate time series with low-frequency variability and has a strong potential for use in climate change impact studies. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Hydrological modeling; Low-frequency variability; Multisite and multivariate dependencies; Weather generator
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; frequency analysis; hydrological modeling; multivariate analysis; streamflow; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145927
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, 299 Bayi Road, Wuchang Distinct, Wuhan, Hubei 430072, China; École de technologie supérieure, Université du Québec, 1100 Notre-Dame Street West, Montreal, QC H3C 1K3, Canada; Quebec Power Operation, Rio Tinto Alcan, Jonquière, QC G7S 4R5, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen J.,Arsenault R.,Brissette F.P.,et al. Coupling annual; monthly and daily weather generators to simulate multisite and multivariate climate variables with low-frequency variability for hydrological modelling[J],2019,53(2020-07-08).
APA	Chen J.,Arsenault R.,Brissette F.P.,Côté P.,&Su T..(2019).Coupling annual; monthly and daily weather generators to simulate multisite and multivariate climate variables with low-frequency variability for hydrological modelling.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-07-08).
MLA	Chen J.,et al."Coupling annual; monthly and daily weather generators to simulate multisite and multivariate climate variables with low-frequency variability for hydrological modelling".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-07-08(2019).