气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long-term ENSO relationship to precipitation and storm frequency over western Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindukush region during the winter season

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04859-1
	Long-term ENSO relationship to precipitation and storm frequency over western Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindukush region during the winter season
	Kamil S.; Almazroui M.; Kang I.-S.; Hanif M.; Kucharski F.; Abid M.A.; Saeed F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5265
结束页码	5278
卷号	53 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	The interannual precipitation variability over Western Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindukush (WHKH) region has a significant impact on the freshwater resources, energy and agriculture sectors. Midlatitude storms play the role of an atmospheric bridge between large-scale circulation patterns and regional precipitation distributions during the winter (December–April) season. In this study, we investigated long-term changes between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and storm activity as well as between ENSO and for precipitation, over WHKH for the period 1950–2015. The Melbourne University Objective Cyclone Identification and Tracking Scheme is used to track the midlatitude storms. A non-linear relationship is identified between the storm track frequency and precipitation over the WHKH region. The correlation between the storm frequency and precipitation increases significantly (95%) after the 1980s and reaches a maximum value of 0.53. Furthermore, 21-year running correlations also show non-linear relationships between ENSO and WHKH’s precipitation as well as for storm tracks frequency. The simultaneous correlation between storm tracks frequency (precipitation) and Niño3.4 index was insignificant 0.03 (0.25) in the earlier period from 1950 to 1979, which surged to 0.47 (0.60) in recent 30-years period from 1986 to 2015. Composites and regression analysis illustrate that ENSO modulated the midlatitude storm tracks over the WHKH region, which in turns impact more precipitation anomalies in the recent 30-years period. Moreover, Saudi King Abdulaziz University Atmospheric General Circulation Model (Saudi-KAU AGCM) also confirms the change in the relationship between ENSO and WHKH precipitation variability during the winter season between the two periods. These findings may have important implications for the seasonal rainfall predictability of the WHKH region. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	ENSO; Saudi-KAU model; Storm tracks; WHKH; Winter rainfall
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; atmospheric general circulation model; climate prediction; correlation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; midlatitude environment; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; regional climate; storm; storm track; winter; Himalayas; Hindu Kush; Karakoram
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145922
作者单位	Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, P. O. Box 80208, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia; Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan; Indian Research Center School, Second Institute of Oceanographic (SOED), Hangzhou, China; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kamil S.,Almazroui M.,Kang I.-S.,等. Long-term ENSO relationship to precipitation and storm frequency over western Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindukush region during the winter season[J],2019,53(2020-09-10).
APA	Kamil S..,Almazroui M..,Kang I.-S..,Hanif M..,Kucharski F..,...&Saeed F..(2019).Long-term ENSO relationship to precipitation and storm frequency over western Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindukush region during the winter season.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-09-10).
MLA	Kamil S.,et al."Long-term ENSO relationship to precipitation and storm frequency over western Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindukush region during the winter season".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-09-10(2019).