气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis integrating climate variability and change with application to the Middle East

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04866-2
	Nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis integrating climate variability and change with application to the Middle East
	Ouarda T.B.M.J.; Charron C.; Kumar K.N.; Phanikumar D.V.; Molini A.; Basha G.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5329
结束页码	5347
卷号	53 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	The Middle East can experience extended wintertime spells of exceptionally hot weather, which can result in prolonged droughts and have major impacts on the already scarce water resources of the region. Recent observational studies point at increasing trends in mean and extreme temperatures in the Middle East, while climate projections seem to indicate that, in a warming weather scenario, the frequency, intensity and duration of warm spells will increase. The nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis approach proposed herein allows considering both climate variability through global climatic oscillations and climate change signals. In this study, statistical distributions with parameters conditional on covariates representing time, to account for temporal trend, and climate indices are used to predict the frequency, duration and intensity of wintertime warm spells in the Middle East. Such models could find a large applicability in various fields of climate research, and in particular in the seasonal prediction of warm spell severity. Based on previous studies linking atmospheric circulation patterns in the Atlantic to extreme temperatures in the Middle East, we use as covariates two classic modes of ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ climatic variability in the Atlantic Ocean (i.e., the Northern Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation respectively). Results indicate that the use of covariates improves the goodness-of-fit of models for all warm spell characteristics. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate index; Frequency analysis; Middle East; Natural climate variability; Nonstationary model; Statistical distribution; Winter warm spell
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; climate variation; extreme event; frequency analysis; numerical model; regional climate; temperature profile; winter; Atlantic Ocean; Middle East
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145918
作者单位	Canada Research Chair in Statistical Hydro-Climatology, INRS-ETE, National Institute of Scientific Research, Quebec City, QC G1K9A9, Canada; Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India; Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, Technology Bhawan, New Delhi, India; Institute Center for Water and Environment (iWATER), Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 54224, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Department of Space, Gadanki, 517112, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ouarda T.B.M.J.,Charron C.,Kumar K.N.,et al. Nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis integrating climate variability and change with application to the Middle East[J],2019,53(2020-09-10).
APA	Ouarda T.B.M.J.,Charron C.,Kumar K.N.,Phanikumar D.V.,Molini A.,&Basha G..(2019).Nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis integrating climate variability and change with application to the Middle East.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-09-10).
MLA	Ouarda T.B.M.J.,et al."Nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis integrating climate variability and change with application to the Middle East".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-09-10(2019).