气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Season-dependent predictability barrier for two types of El Niño revealed by an approach to data analysis for predictability

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04888-w
	Season-dependent predictability barrier for two types of El Niño revealed by an approach to data analysis for predictability
	Hou M.; Duan W.; Zhi X.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5561
结束页码	5581
卷号	53 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	The real-time prediction skill for El Niño-Southern Oscillation has not improved steadily during the twenty-first century. One important reason is the season-dependent predictability barrier (PB), and another is due to the diversity of El Niño. In this paper, an approach to data analysis for predictability is developed to investigate the season-dependent PB phenomena of two types of El Niño events by using the monthly mean data of the preindustrial control (“pi-Control”) runs from several coupled model outputs in CMIP5 experiments. The results find that predictions for Central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño) suffered from summer PB, whereas those for Eastern Pacific El Niño (EP-El Niño) are mainly interfered with by spring PB. The initial errors most frequently causing PB for CP- and EP-El Niño are revealed and they emphasize that the initial sea temperature accuracy in the Victoria mode (VM) region in the North Pacific is more important for better predictions of the intensity of the CP-El Niño, whereas that in the subsurface layer of the west equatorial Pacific and the surface layer of the southeast Pacific is of more concern for better predictions of the structure of CP-El Niño. However, for EP-El Niño, the former is indicated to modulate the structure of the event, whereas the latter is shown to be more effective in predictions of the intensity of the event. Obviously, for predicting which type of El Niño will occur, more attention should be paid to the initial sea temperature accuracy in not only the subsurface layer of the west equatorial Pacific and the surface layer of the southeast Pacific but also the region covered by the VM-like mode in the North Pacific. This result provided guidance aiming at how to initialize model in predictions of El Niño types. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; prediction; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; twenty first century; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (East); Pacific Ocean (Equatorial); Pacific Ocean (North); Pacific Ocean (Southeast)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145909
作者单位	Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters, Ministry of Education (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hou M.,Duan W.,Zhi X.. Season-dependent predictability barrier for two types of El Niño revealed by an approach to data analysis for predictability[J],2019,53(2020-09-10).
APA	Hou M.,Duan W.,&Zhi X..(2019).Season-dependent predictability barrier for two types of El Niño revealed by an approach to data analysis for predictability.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-09-10).
MLA	Hou M.,et al."Season-dependent predictability barrier for two types of El Niño revealed by an approach to data analysis for predictability".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-09-10(2019).