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| DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04902-1 |
| Frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events under global warming | |
| Marjani S.; Alizadeh-Choobari O.; Irannejad P. | |
| 发表日期 | 2019 |
| ISSN | 0930-7575 |
| 起始页码 | 5799 |
| 结束页码 | 5813 |
| 卷号 | 53期号:2020-09-10 |
| 英文摘要 | The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a quasi-periodical natural phenomenon occurring in the tropical Pacific whose characteristics can be influenced by global warming. Using outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the numbers of extreme El Niño and La Niña events are analyzed for the 50-year period in the future (2050–2099) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios relative to those during the historical period 1950–1999. Analyses are based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and the modified Cai index that is defined in this study. Our approach deviates from that of Cai et al. (Nat Clim Change 4:111–116, 2014, Nat Clim Change 5:132–137, 2015b), who used rainfall thresholds to identify extreme El Niño events but sea surface temperature (SST) thresholds to identify extreme La Niña events. Analysis of SST and rainfall in the tropical Pacific indicated that under global warming the eastern equatorial Pacific warms faster than the surrounding ocean waters, which is accompanied by an increase of rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Thus, changes in the mean state of the tropical Pacific climate will be like an El Niño pattern under global warming. By applying the ONI, it is found that the number of very strong El Niño events slightly increases under global warming, while the rate of increase in the number of very strong La Niña events is greater than that of very strong El Niño events. Analysis based on the modified Cai index indicates a slight decrease in the number of extreme El Niño events and a slight increase in the number of extreme La Niña events under global warming. Thus, results of several previous studies which concluded that the number of extreme El Niño events nearly doubles under global warming are not supported by results of this study. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. |
| 英文关键词 | CMIP5; Extreme El Niño; Extreme La Niña; Global warming; The El Niño-Southern Oscillation |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | air-sea interaction; climate change; CMIP; El Nino; extreme event; global warming; La Nina; rainfall; sea surface temperature; Southern Oscillation; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial) |
| 来源期刊 | Climate Dynamics
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145886 |
| 作者单位 | Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marjani S.,Alizadeh-Choobari O.,Irannejad P.. Frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events under global warming[J],2019,53(2020-09-10). |
| APA | Marjani S.,Alizadeh-Choobari O.,&Irannejad P..(2019).Frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events under global warming.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-09-10). |
| MLA | Marjani S.,et al."Frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events under global warming".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-09-10(2019). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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