气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Attribution of ocean temperature change to anthropogenic and natural forcings using the temporal; vertical and geographical structure

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04910-1
	Attribution of ocean temperature change to anthropogenic and natural forcings using the temporal; vertical and geographical structure
	Bilbao R.A.F.; Gregory J.M.; Bouttes N.; Palmer M.D.; Stott P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5389
结束页码	5413
卷号	53 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	We examine whether significant changes in ocean temperatures can be detected in recent decades and if so whether they can be attributed to anthropogenic or natural factors. We compare ocean temperature changes for 1960–2005 in four observational datasets and in historical simulations by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Observations and CMIP5 models show that the upper 2000 m has warmed with a signal that has a well-defined geographical pattern that gradually propagates to deeper layers over time. Greenhouse gas forcing has contributed most to increasing the temperature of the ocean, a warming which has been offset by other anthropogenic forcing (mainly aerosols), and volcanic eruptions which cause episodic cooling. By characterizing the ocean temperature change response to these forcings we construct multi-model mean fingerprints of time-depth changes in temperature and carry out two detection and attribution analysis. We consider first a two-signal separation into anthropogenic and natural forcings. Then, for the first time, we consider a three signal separation into greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosols and natural forcings. We show that all three signals are simultaneously detectable. Using multiple depth levels decreases the uncertainty of the results. Limiting the observations and model fields to locations where there are observations increases the detectability of the signal. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate Change; Detection and Attribution; Ocean Heat Content
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropogenic effect; atmospheric general circulation model; climate change; climate effect; climate forcing; geographical distribution; heat budget; oceanic general circulation model; sea surface temperature; temporal distribution; vertical distribution
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145882
作者单位	Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; NCAS-Climate, Meteorology Department, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; University of Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bilbao R.A.F.,Gregory J.M.,Bouttes N.,et al. Attribution of ocean temperature change to anthropogenic and natural forcings using the temporal; vertical and geographical structure[J],2019,53(2020-09-10).
APA	Bilbao R.A.F.,Gregory J.M.,Bouttes N.,Palmer M.D.,&Stott P..(2019).Attribution of ocean temperature change to anthropogenic and natural forcings using the temporal; vertical and geographical structure.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-09-10).
MLA	Bilbao R.A.F.,et al."Attribution of ocean temperature change to anthropogenic and natural forcings using the temporal; vertical and geographical structure".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-09-10(2019).