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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04913-y
	Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: roles of atmospheric resolution; synoptic variability and background climate changes
	Vecchi G.A.; Delworth T.L.; Murakami H.; Underwood S.D.; Wittenberg A.T.; Zeng F.; Zhang W.; Baldwin J.W.; Bhatia K.T.; Cooke W.; He J.; Kapnick S.B.; Knutson T.R.; Villarini G.; van der Wiel K.; Anderson W.; Balaji V.; Chen J.–H.; Dixon K.W.; Gudgel R.; Harris L.M.; Jia L.; Johnson N.C.; Lin S.-J.; Liu M.; Ng C.H.J.; Rosati A.; Smith J.A.; Yang X.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	5999
结束页码	6033
卷号	53 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	Responses of tropical cyclones (TCs) to CO2 doubling are explored using coupled global climate models (GCMs) with increasingly refined atmospheric/land horizontal grids (~ 200 km, ~ 50 km and ~ 25 km). The three models exhibit similar changes in background climate fields thought to regulate TC activity, such as relative sea surface temperature (SST), potential intensity, and wind shear. However, global TC frequency decreases substantially in the 50 km model, while the 25 km model shows no significant change. The ~ 25 km model also has a substantial and spatially-ubiquitous increase of Category 3–4–5 hurricanes. Idealized perturbation experiments are performed to understand the TC response. Each model’s transient fully-coupled 2 × CO2 TC activity response is largely recovered by “time-slice” experiments using time-invariant SST perturbations added to each model’s own SST climatology. The TC response to SST forcing depends on each model’s background climatological SST biases: removing these biases leads to a global TC intensity increase in the ~ 50 km model, and a global TC frequency increase in the ~ 25 km model, in response to CO2-induced warming patterns and CO2 doubling. Isolated CO2 doubling leads to a significant TC frequency decrease, while isolated uniform SST warming leads to a significant global TC frequency increase; the ~ 25 km model has a greater tendency for frequency increase. Global TC frequency responds to both (1) changes in TC “seeds”, which increase due to warming (more so in the ~ 25 km model) and decrease due to higher CO2 concentrations, and (2) less efficient development of these“seeds” into TCs, largely due to the nonlinear relation between temperature and saturation specific humidity. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; climate change; climate modeling; perturbation; resolution; sea surface temperature; synoptic meteorology; tropical cyclone; warming
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145866
作者单位	Geosciences Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States; School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vecchi G.A.,Delworth T.L.,Murakami H.,et al. Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: roles of atmospheric resolution; synoptic variability and background climate changes[J],2019,53(2020-09-10).
APA	Vecchi G.A..,Delworth T.L..,Murakami H..,Underwood S.D..,Wittenberg A.T..,...&Yang X..(2019).Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: roles of atmospheric resolution; synoptic variability and background climate changes.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-09-10).
MLA	Vecchi G.A.,et al."Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: roles of atmospheric resolution; synoptic variability and background climate changes".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-09-10(2019).