气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Driving mechanisms of the variability and long-term trend of the Brazil–Malvinas confluence during the 21st century

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04942-7
	Driving mechanisms of the variability and long-term trend of the Brazil–Malvinas confluence during the 21st century
	de Souza M.M.; Mathis M.; Pohlmann T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6453
结束页码	6468
卷号	53 期号:2020-09-10
英文摘要	Over the last decade, several studies have identified a southward drift of the mean meridional position of the Brazil–Malvinas confluence (BMC). Although this trend has been ascribed to different mechanisms, the most recent study found a reduction of the Malvinas current (MC) as the main reason behind it. It is unclear, however, how this mechanism would persist in the face of global warming and under projected increased winds over the Southern Ocean, as the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) varies within different Earth System Models (ESM), ultimately impacting the MC. We ran a high-resolution (1 / 12 ∘) ocean model driven with results from the Max-Planck-Institute–ESM to verify how the confluence will respond to anthropogenic climate change, by downscaling results from the pre-industrial control and RCP8.5 scenarios. Our results show that the southward confluence shift is only persistent under anthropogenic forcing and is led by a reduction of the MC volume transport. This reduction of the Malvinas transport is induced by a shift of the main ACC flow closer to Antarctica’s shelf, in response to a southward movement of the westerlies band, even if no long-term changes on the total ACC transport can be found. Our results corroborate previous evidence regarding the MC as the main responsible behind the observed BMC southward shift in the recent past but points toward anthropogenic climate change as the triggering mechanism, with various effects cascading from its impact on the Southern Ocean. This also has consequences for the BMC variability, whose amplitude reduces as we approach the end of the 21st century. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Antarctic circumpolar current; Climate change; HAMSOM; LightGBM; MPI–ESM; RCP8.5
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; anthropogenic effect; circumpolar current; climate change; confluence; global warming; trend analysis; twenty first century; Brazil; Southern Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145860
作者单位	Institutüt für Meereskunde, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	de Souza M.M.,Mathis M.,Pohlmann T.. Driving mechanisms of the variability and long-term trend of the Brazil–Malvinas confluence during the 21st century[J],2019,53(2020-09-10).
APA	de Souza M.M.,Mathis M.,&Pohlmann T..(2019).Driving mechanisms of the variability and long-term trend of the Brazil–Malvinas confluence during the 21st century.Climate Dynamics,53(2020-09-10).
MLA	de Souza M.M.,et al."Driving mechanisms of the variability and long-term trend of the Brazil–Malvinas confluence during the 21st century".Climate Dynamics 53.2020-09-10(2019).