气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-016-3296-z
	Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa
	Shukla S.; Roberts J.; Hoell A.; Funk C.C.; Robertson F.; Kirtman B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7411
结束页码	7427
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	The skill of North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts in East Africa (EA), which encompasses one of the most food and water insecure areas of the world, is evaluated using deterministic, categorical, and probabilistic evaluation methods. The skill is estimated for all three primary growing seasons: March–May (MAM), July–September (JAS), and October–December (OND). It is found that the precipitation forecast skill in this region is generally limited and statistically significant over only a small part of the domain. In the case of MAM (JAS) [OND] season it exceeds the skill of climatological forecasts in parts of equatorial EA (Northern Ethiopia) [equatorial EA] for up to 2 (5) [5] months lead. Temperature forecast skill is generally much higher than precipitation forecast skill (in terms of deterministic and probabilistic skill scores) and statistically significant over a majority of the region. Over the region as a whole, temperature forecasts also exhibit greater reliability than the precipitation forecasts. The NMME ensemble forecasts are found to be more skillful and reliable than the forecast from any individual model. The results also demonstrate that for some seasons (e.g. JAS), the predictability of precipitation signals varies and is higher during certain climate events (e.g. ENSO). Finally, potential room for improvement in forecast skill is identified in some models by comparing homogeneous predictability in individual NMME models with their respective forecast skill. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; early warning system; ensemble forecasting; hydrometeorology; precipitation assessment; prediction; seasonal variation; East Africa
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145846
作者单位	Climate Hazards Group, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, United States; Physical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; EROS United States Geological Survey, Garretson, SD, United States; University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shukla S.,Roberts J.,Hoell A.,et al. Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Shukla S.,Roberts J.,Hoell A.,Funk C.C.,Robertson F.,&Kirtman B..(2019).Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Shukla S.,et al."Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).