气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-016-3369-z
	Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity
	Villarini G.; Luitel B.; Vecchi G.A.; Ghosh J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7461
结束页码	7477
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and hurricanes are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage. Skillful seasonal predictions of the North Atlantic TC activity can provide basic information critical to our improved preparedness. This study focuses on the development of statistical–dynamical seasonal forecasting systems for different quantities related to the frequency and intensity of North Atlantic TCs. These models use only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to describe the variability exhibited by the observational records because they reflect the importance of both local and non-local effects on the genesis and development of TCs in the North Atlantic basin. A set of retrospective forecasts of SSTs by six experimental seasonal-to-interannual prediction systems from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble are used as covariates. The retrospective forecasts are performed over the period 1982–2015. The skill of these statistical–dynamical models is quantified for different quantities (basin-wide number of tropical storms and hurricanes, power dissipation index and accumulated cyclone energy) for forecasts initialized as early as November of the year prior to the season to forecast. The results of this work show that it is possible to obtain skillful retrospective forecasts of North Atlantic TC activity with a long lead time. Moreover, probabilistic forecasts of North Atlantic TC activity for the 2016 season are provided. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; ensemble forecasting; hurricane event; prediction; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; tropical cyclone; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145844
作者单位	306 C. Maxwell Stanley Hydraulics Laboratory, IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Villarini G.,Luitel B.,Vecchi G.A.,et al. Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Villarini G.,Luitel B.,Vecchi G.A.,&Ghosh J..(2019).Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Villarini G.,et al."Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).