气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): ENSO influence on the dynamical seasonal prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-3574-4
	ENSO influence on the dynamical seasonal prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon
	Kang D.; Lee M.-I.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7479
结束页码	7495
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	This study examined the forecast skill for the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) using the following state-of-the-art dynamical seasonal prediction systems: CanCM3, CanCM4, CFSv2, CM2.1, and GEOS-5. To assess the prediction skills and the associations with ENSO teleconnections of these systems, long-term seasonal hindcast data sets for 28 years (1983–2010) were investigated. Observational data indicated that the ENSO–EAWM connection strengthened in a recent period (1997–2010; r = −0.84) compared with that in an earlier period (1983–1996; r = −0.44). For the recent period, a practical level of prediction skill for the EAWM index was retained by CFSv2 and GEOS-5 for the lead time of 2 months or longer, with these models showing a realistic ENSO–EAWM relationship throughout the Western Pacific Warm Pool with east–west dipole anomalies of precipitation induced by ENSO. The prediction skill of the other models was poor, even for lead times of zero to 1 month, with weak ENSO–EAWM relationships and errant north–south dipole anomalies of precipitation associated with ENSO. A large model spread was also found consistently in the CMIP5 AMIP and the Historical simulations by 14 models of the spatial pattern of equatorial Pacific precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the effect on the ENSO–EAWM relationship. Based on this study, the accurate prediction of EAWM should be linked with a realistic representation of the convection response in the equatorial Pacific by ENSO and the teleconnection to EAWM. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
英文关键词	Decadal variability; East Asian Winter Monsoon; ENSO; Seasonal prediction; Teleconnection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; atmospheric dynamics; decadal variation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; hindcasting; monsoon; seasonal variation; teleconnection; warm pool; weather forecasting; winter; Far East; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial); Pacific Ocean (West)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145842
作者单位	School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, 50 UNIST-gil, Ulsan, 44919, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kang D.,Lee M.-I.. ENSO influence on the dynamical seasonal prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Kang D.,&Lee M.-I..(2019).ENSO influence on the dynamical seasonal prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Kang D.,et al."ENSO influence on the dynamical seasonal prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).