气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-3603-3
	Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble
	Barnston A.G.; Tippett M.K.; Ranganathan M.; L’Heureux M.L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7215
结束页码	7234
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	Hindcasts and real-time predictions of the east-central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) system are verified for 1982–2015. Skill is examined using two deterministic verification measures: mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and anomaly correlation. Verification of eight individual models shows somewhat differing skills among them, with some models consistently producing more successful predictions than others. The skill levels of MME predictions are approximately the same as the two best performing individual models, and sometimes exceed both of them. A decomposition of the MSESS indicates the presence of calibration errors in some of the models. In particular, the amplitudes of some model predictions are too high when predictability is limited by the northern spring ENSO predictability barrier and/or when the interannual variability of the SST is near its seasonal minimum. The skill of the NMME system is compared to that of the MME from the IRI/CPC ENSO prediction plume, both for a comparable hindcast period and also for a set of real-time predictions spanning 2002–2011. Comparisons are made both between the MME predictions of each model group, and between the average of the skills of the respective individual models in each group. Acknowledging a hindcast versus real-time inconcsistency in the 2002–2012 skill comparison, the skill of the NMME is slightly higher than that of the prediction plume models in all cases. This result reflects well on the NMME system, with its large total ensemble size and opportunity for possible complementary contributions to skill. © 2017, The Author(s).
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145841
作者单位	International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute of Columbia University, 65 Route 9W, Palisades, New York, NY 10964, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Department of Meteorology, Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, PA, United States; Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Barnston A.G.,Tippett M.K.,Ranganathan M.,et al. Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Barnston A.G.,Tippett M.K.,Ranganathan M.,&L’Heureux M.L..(2019).Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Barnston A.G.,et al."Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).