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| DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3657-2 |
| Temperature trends and prediction skill in NMME seasonal forecasts | |
| Krakauer N.Y. | |
| 发表日期 | 2019 |
| ISSN | 0930-7575 |
| 起始页码 | 7201 |
| 结束页码 | 7213 |
| 卷号 | 53期号:12 |
| 英文摘要 | The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) provides hindcasts and real-time predictions for monthly mean climate fields at lead times of up to a year. These global climate model outputs can be useful in constructing improved seasonal forecasts. Here, several simple methods are developed and evaluated for forecasting monthly temperatures up to a year in advance based on either unweighted or weighted NMME outputs, and compared to previously developed statistical forecast methods that use only time series of past observations. It is found that the NMME-based methods produce forecast temperature probability distributions that are appropriately shifted toward the warm end of past experience and also show skill at representing interannual variability. NMME-based methods clearly outperformed purely statistical methods for forecasting temperatures over ocean, though over land this improvement is less clear over the evaluation period tested. The NMME seasonal forecasts may be particularly useful for giving early warning of heat waves, given their societal significance and higher conditional skill under those conditions. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
| 英文关键词 | Berkeley Earth; Heat waves; NMME; Seasonal forecasting; Temperature |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | air temperature; climate modeling; heat wave; prediction; probability; weather forecasting |
| 来源期刊 | Climate Dynamics
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145837 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Civil Engineering, The City College of New York, New York, NY, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Krakauer N.Y.. Temperature trends and prediction skill in NMME seasonal forecasts[J],2019,53(12). |
| APA | Krakauer N.Y..(2019).Temperature trends and prediction skill in NMME seasonal forecasts.Climate Dynamics,53(12). |
| MLA | Krakauer N.Y.."Temperature trends and prediction skill in NMME seasonal forecasts".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019). |
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