气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): NMME-based hybrid prediction of Atlantic hurricane season activity

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-3891-7
	NMME-based hybrid prediction of Atlantic hurricane season activity
	Harnos D.S.; Schemm J.-K.E.; Wang H.; Finan C.A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7267
结束页码	7285
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	A hybrid dynamical–statistical model is pursued for prediction of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity driven by output of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). This is an updated version of a proven multiple linear regression method conditioned on forecast vertical wind shear from the Climate Forecast System and observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The method pursued for prediction utilizes August–October (ASO) Main Development Region (MDR; 10–20°N, 20–80°W) vertical wind shear and observed North Atlantic (NATL; 55–65°N, 30–60°W) SST averaged over the 3 months preceding the forecast in conjunction with the full hurricane climatology. NMME forecasts improve upon representations relative to individual members. The NMME multi-model mean better reproduces vertical wind shear distributions over the MDR and captures the observed relationships between SST and vertical wind shear with hurricane trend and interannual variability despite occasionally poor reproductions by individual members. Cross-validation reveals the multi-model average of the hybrid model outputs from the individual NMME members yields forecast errors 10–30% less than the individual members, while correlations with observed hurricane-related activity typically improve. The NMME methodology is shown to be competitive with official outlooks from Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration over recent years. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany.
英文关键词	Hurricane; Interannual variability; North American Multimodel Ensemble; Seasonal prediction; Tropical cyclone; Typhoon
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; climate prediction; ensemble forecasting; hurricane; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; typhoon; wind shear
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145831
作者单位	Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; Innovim LLC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Harnos D.S.,Schemm J.-K.E.,Wang H.,et al. NMME-based hybrid prediction of Atlantic hurricane season activity[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Harnos D.S.,Schemm J.-K.E.,Wang H.,&Finan C.A..(2019).NMME-based hybrid prediction of Atlantic hurricane season activity.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Harnos D.S.,et al."NMME-based hybrid prediction of Atlantic hurricane season activity".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).