气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-3835-2
	GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system
	Borovikov A.; Cullather R.; Kovach R.; Marshak J.; Vernieres G.; Vikhliaev Y.; Zhao B.; Li Z.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7335
结束页码	7361
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	Ensembles of numerical forecasts based on perturbed initial conditions have long been used to improve estimates of both weather and climate forecasts. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5 AOGCM) Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecast System has been used routinely by the GMAO since 2008, the current version since 2012. A coupled reanalysis starting in 1980 provides the initial conditions for the 9-month experimental forecasts. Once a month, sea surface temperature from a suite of 11 ensemble forecasts is contributed to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) consensus project, which compares and distributes seasonal forecasts of ENSO events. Since June 2013, GEOS-5 forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice distribution were provided to the Sea-Ice Outlook project. The seasonal forecast output data includes surface fields, atmospheric and ocean fields, as well as sea ice thickness and area, and soil moisture variables. The current paper aims to document the characteristics of the GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system and to highlight forecast biases and skills of selected variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature at 2 m, precipitation and sea ice extent) to be used as a benchmark for the future GMAO seasonal forecast systems and to facilitate comparison with other global seasonal forecast systems. © 2017, The Author(s).
英文关键词	ENSO; Forecast skill; GEOS-5; Global forecast; NMME; Seasonal prediction
语种	英语
scopus关键词	El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; EOS; forecasting method; general circulation model; prediction; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; North America
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145829
作者单位	Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Science Systems and Applications Inc, Lanham, MD, United States; Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, United States; Science Applications International Corporation, Mclean, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Borovikov A.,Cullather R.,Kovach R.,et al. GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Borovikov A..,Cullather R..,Kovach R..,Marshak J..,Vernieres G..,...&Li Z..(2019).GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Borovikov A.,et al."GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).