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DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-3968-3
	Impacts of the Pacific meridional mode on rainfall over the maritime continent and australia: potential for seasonal predictions
	Zhang W.; Villarini G.; Vecchi G.A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7185
结束页码	7199
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	This study assesses whether, the extent to which and why the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) modulates rainfall in Australia and the Maritime Continent. We find a statistically significant time-lagged association between March-to-May (MAM) PMM and September-to-November (SON) rainfall in the Maritime Continent and Australia. The association is largely caused by the contribution of PMM to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Positive (negative) MAM PMM is generally followed by El Niño (La Niña) events in the following SON and December-to-February (DJF), which then suppresses (enhances) rainfall in the Maritime Continent and Australia. The suppression (enhancement) of rainfall is closely tied to the dynamical changes of moisture flux using moisture flux potential and its divergent components. Following the positive (negative) PMM phases, there is a strong moisture flux potential sink (source) in SON over the Maritime Continent and Australia, which act to suppress (enhance) rainfall there. Using MAM PMM as a predictor for SON rainfall in the Maritime Continent and Australia, the prediction skill is comparable to the North American Multimodel Ensemble project (NMME) forecasts initialized in June over the period 1981–2014. This suggests that MAM PMM may be used as a predictor for SON rainfall in the Maritime Continent and Australia. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; El Nino; ensemble forecasting; La Nina; meridional circulation; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; regional climate; weather forecasting; Australia
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145828
作者单位	IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa, IA, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang W.,Villarini G.,Vecchi G.A.. Impacts of the Pacific meridional mode on rainfall over the maritime continent and australia: potential for seasonal predictions[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Zhang W.,Villarini G.,&Vecchi G.A..(2019).Impacts of the Pacific meridional mode on rainfall over the maritime continent and australia: potential for seasonal predictions.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Zhang W.,et al."Impacts of the Pacific meridional mode on rainfall over the maritime continent and australia: potential for seasonal predictions".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).