气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-4049-3
	Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate
	Elders A.; Pegion K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7237
结束页码	7250
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the climate system, moderating the exchange of energy and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere. An emerging area of research investigates how changes, particularly declines, in sea ice extent (SIE) impact climate in regions local to and remote from the Arctic. Therefore, both observations and model estimates of sea ice become important. This study investigates the skill of sea ice predictions from models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. Three of the models in this project provide sea-ice predictions. The ensemble average of these models is used to determine seasonal climate impacts on surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in remote regions such as the mid-latitudes. It is found that declines in fall SIE are associated with cold temperatures in the mid-latitudes and pressure patterns across the Arctic and mid-latitudes similar to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). These findings are consistent with other studies that have investigated the relationship between declines in SIE and mid-latitude weather and climate. In an attempt to include additional NMME models for sea-ice predictions, a proxy for SIE is used to estimate ice extent in the remaining models, using sea surface temperature (SST). It is found that SST is a reasonable proxy for SIE estimation when compared to model SIE forecasts and observations. The proxy sea-ice estimates also show similar relationships to mid-latitude temperature and pressure as the actual sea-ice predictions. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Arctic; Climate change; Mid-latitude winter weather; North American Multi-Model Ensemble; Sea ice
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate change; climate prediction; ensemble forecasting; sea ice; sea level pressure; sea surface temperature; winter; Arctic Ocean
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145827
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Elders A.,Pegion K.. Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Elders A.,&Pegion K..(2019).Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Elders A.,et al."Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).