气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-018-4140-4
	Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe
	Rodrigues L.R.L.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.; Coelho C.A.S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	7305
结束页码	7320
卷号	53 期号:12
英文摘要	A Bayesian method known as the Forecast Assimilation (FA) was used to calibrate and combine monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation outputs from seasonal dynamical forecast systems. The simple multimodel (SMM), a method that combines predictions with equal weights, was used as a benchmark. This research focuses on Europe and adjacent regions for predictions initialized in May and November, covering the boreal summer and winter months. The forecast quality of the FA and SMM as well as the single seasonal dynamical forecast systems was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic measures. A non-parametric bootstrap method was used to account for the sampling uncertainty of the forecast quality measures. We show that the FA performs as well as or better than the SMM in regions where the dynamical forecast systems were able to represent the main modes of climate covariability. An illustration with the near-surface temperature over North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea and Middle-East in summer months associated with the well predicted first mode of climate covariability is offered. However, the main modes of climate covariability are not well represented in most situations discussed in this study as the seasonal dynamical forecast systems have limited skill when predicting the European climate. In these situations, the SMM performs better more often. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Climate prediction; Forecast assimilation; Forecast quality assessment; Multimodel ensemble
语种	英语
scopus关键词	calibration; climate prediction; climate variation; data assimilation; ensemble forecasting; precipitation (climatology); surface temperature; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Europe; Mediterranean Sea
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145826
作者单位	Centro de Ciências do Sistema Terrestre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Rod. Presidente Dutra Km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, 12630-000, Brazil; Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación, C. Jordi Girona 29, Barcelona, 08034, Spain; ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, Barcelona, 08010, Spain; Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Rod. Presidente Dutra Km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, 12630-000, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rodrigues L.R.L.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.,Coelho C.A.S.. Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe[J],2019,53(12).
APA	Rodrigues L.R.L.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.,&Coelho C.A.S..(2019).Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe.Climate Dynamics,53(12).
MLA	Rodrigues L.R.L.,et al."Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe".Climate Dynamics 53.12(2019).