气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying the importance of interannual; interdecadal and multidecadal climate natural variabilities in the modulation of global warming rates

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04955-2
	Quantifying the importance of interannual; interdecadal and multidecadal climate natural variabilities in the modulation of global warming rates
	Wei M.; Qiao F.; Guo Y.; Deng J.; Song Z.; Shu Q.; Yang X.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	6715
结束页码	6727
卷号	53 期号:11
英文摘要	Despite the monotonically rising greenhouse gas emission, global warming rate changes again and again, especially the slowdown during 1998–2013, challenging the current global temperature change mechanisms. Recently, different-scale natural climate variabilities have been individually recognized as the potential causes of global warming rate change, particularly the recent warming slowdown, but disagreements still exist on their relative importance. Here we quantify the contribution of interannual, interdecadal and multidecadal variabilities (IAV, IDV and MDV) in modulating the global warming rate during the period 1850–2017 via decomposing the global mean temperature timeseries derived from 12 datasets into several quasi-periodic fluctuations and a monotonical secular trend (ST) using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. Our results show that the IAV, IDV and MDV dominate the global warming rate change together, rather than one-scale variability alone. For example, during 1998–2013 both the IAV and IDV present obvious negative trends and combine to cut 59 ± 22% of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and 65 ± 38% of sea surface temperature (SST) positive trends which are caused by the steadily warming ST and the warming phase of MDV, thus causing an apparent warming slowdown during this period. Furthermore, we illustrate that the IAV, IDV and MDV mainly originate from the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), respectively. Our work partly reconciles the controversy over the importance of different-scale natural variabilities, and provides some insights for climate change attribution and prediction research. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	AMO; ENSO; Global warming slowdown; Hiatus; Natural climate variability; PDO
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; climate change; climate variation; decadal variation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; global warming; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; sea surface temperature
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145799
作者单位	First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, 6 Xianxialing Road, Qingdao, 266061, China; Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, 266237, China; Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, Qingdao, 266061, China; Marine Science and Technology College, Zhejiang Ocean University, 1 Haida South Road, Lincheng Changzhi Island, Zhoushan, 316000, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wei M.,Qiao F.,Guo Y.,et al. Quantifying the importance of interannual; interdecadal and multidecadal climate natural variabilities in the modulation of global warming rates[J],2019,53(11).
APA	Wei M..,Qiao F..,Guo Y..,Deng J..,Song Z..,...&Yang X..(2019).Quantifying the importance of interannual; interdecadal and multidecadal climate natural variabilities in the modulation of global warming rates.Climate Dynamics,53(11).
MLA	Wei M.,et al."Quantifying the importance of interannual; interdecadal and multidecadal climate natural variabilities in the modulation of global warming rates".Climate Dynamics 53.11(2019).