气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Contrasting stratospheric–tropospheric multi-fractal behaviors in NAM variability

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04981-0
	Contrasting stratospheric–tropospheric multi-fractal behaviors in NAM variability
	Nian D.; Fu Z.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	37
结束页码	52
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	As a harbinger of anomalous weather regimes in the troposphere, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) propagates from the stratosphere to the troposphere. This fact makes understanding and predicting NAM variability of great importance. In this study, the multi-fractal behaviors of NAM variability are investigated using extended self-similarity based, multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis (ESS-MF-DFA) and the NAM indices from 1000 to 10 hPa. The results show that there are contrasting multi-fractal behaviors between the stratosphere and the troposphere that have a transition band near 200 hPa. The stratospheric NAM variability is more complicated and has multiple multi-fractal regimes over different scales with marked contrasting warm–cold season features. To understand these contrasting stratospheric–tropospheric multi-fractal behaviors, three surrogate methods are adopted to show how temporal ordinal patterns over an annual scale contribute to these behaviors, whereas the distribution of NAM variability only plays a minor role. Further studies show that contrasting warm–cold variability may lead to these contrasting behaviors. Among them, warm–cold seasonal variations, power spectral density (PSD), and autocorrelation provide a similar conclusion. Results indicate that although predictions of the NAM index over the stratosphere are required and necessary, the complicated multi-fractal behaviors make linear prediction strategy difficult to obtain high realizable predictability of NAM variations over the stratosphere. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Multiple multi-fractal behavior; Northern Annular Mode (NAM); Stratospheric–tropospheric variability; Warm–cold season variations
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Arctic Oscillation; atmospheric dynamics; autocorrelation; climate prediction; seasonal variation; stratosphere-troposphere interaction; weather forecasting; Arctic
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145785
作者单位	Lab for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nian D.,Fu Z.. Contrasting stratospheric–tropospheric multi-fractal behaviors in NAM variability[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Nian D.,&Fu Z..(2020).Contrasting stratospheric–tropospheric multi-fractal behaviors in NAM variability.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Nian D.,et al."Contrasting stratospheric–tropospheric multi-fractal behaviors in NAM variability".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).