气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A bias-corrected projection for the changes in East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under global warming

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-04980-1
	A bias-corrected projection for the changes in East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under global warming
	Zhou S.; Huang G.; Huang P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Projecting regional rainfall changes in a warmer climate attracts ongoing attention. However, large uncertainty still exists in multi-model projection. In this study, we introduce a bias-corrected method to correct the multi-model projection of changes in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall based on the historical and RCP8.5 runs of 25 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Firstly, the total rainfall changes are separated into the thermodynamic component due to increased specific humidity and the dynamic component due to circulation changes. The thermodynamic component is corrected using the observed present-day rainfall and the increase rate of specific humidity based on the wet-get-wetter mechanism. On the other hand, the dynamic component with the circulation changes is corrected based on a “spatial emergent constraint” method, which is further validated by the perfect model approach. Together, these corrections give an integrated projection for EASM rainfall changes under global warming. Such an approach can improve the signal-to-noise ratio of projection effectively, from the original 0.73 of the multimodel mean to around 1.9. The corrected projection of EASM rainfall changes shows a pronounced increase in southern China, the northwest Pacific and a belt from northern China to northeastern China, and a weak increase in other EASM regions. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Bias correction; CMIP5; East Asian summer monsoon; Global warming; Rainfall
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric circulation; climate modeling; climate prediction; correction; global warming; humidity; monsoon; rainfall; signal-to-noise ratio; thermodynamics; China; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Northwest)
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145784
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266237, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Beijing, 100875, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou S.,Huang G.,Huang P.. A bias-corrected projection for the changes in East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under global warming[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Zhou S.,Huang G.,&Huang P..(2020).A bias-corrected projection for the changes in East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under global warming.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Zhou S.,et al."A bias-corrected projection for the changes in East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under global warming".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).