气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Understanding the influence of ENSO patterns on drought over southern Africa using SPEEDY

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05002-w
	Understanding the influence of ENSO patterns on drought over southern Africa using SPEEDY
	Gore M.; Abiodun B.J.; Kucharski F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	307
结束页码	327
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of southern Africa drought, but the nonlinearity of ENSO variation inhibits accurate drought prediction. While studies have identified multiple sea surface temperature (SST) patterns associated with ENSO, most drought predictions over southern Africa are still based on only two patterns. This study examines the relationship between southern Africa droughts and eight ENSO SST patterns using SPEEDY. The capability of SPEEDY in reproducing southern Africa climate was evaluated by comparing historical simulations (1979–2008) with observation. To understand the influence of ENSO SST patterns on southern Africa drought, multi-ensemble simulations were forced with SSTs of each pattern, and the impacts on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the associated atmospheric dynamics were analysed. The results show that SPEEDY generally captures the temporal and spatial distribution of climate variables over southern Africa well, although with a warm and wet bias. However, the results are comparable with those from more complex atmospheric models. In agreement with previous studies, the results show that El Niño (La Niña) conditions weaken (strengthen) the Walker circulation, causing drier (wetter) conditions over parts of southern Africa. However, the results show that differences in the El Niño conditions alter the moisture flux circulation over southern Africa, thereby influencing the spatial pattern and intensity of drought over the region. The same is true of the La Niña conditions. Hence, this study shows that accounting for the differences in El Niño (or La Niña) conditions may improve drought predictions in southern Africa. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Droughts; ENSO; Southern Africa; SPEEDY; Teleconnections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; drought; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; precipitation (climatology); sea surface temperature; teleconnection; temperature profile; Southern Africa
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145774
作者单位	Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gore M.,Abiodun B.J.,Kucharski F.. Understanding the influence of ENSO patterns on drought over southern Africa using SPEEDY[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Gore M.,Abiodun B.J.,&Kucharski F..(2020).Understanding the influence of ENSO patterns on drought over southern Africa using SPEEDY.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Gore M.,et al."Understanding the influence of ENSO patterns on drought over southern Africa using SPEEDY".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).