气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes in Indian summer monsoon characteristics under 1.5 and 2 °C specific warming levels

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-019-05012-8
	Future changes in Indian summer monsoon characteristics under 1.5 and 2 °C specific warming levels
	Maharana P.; Dimri A.P.; Choudhary A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	507
结束页码	523
卷号	54 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	The rainfall during Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is very important for the population living in the Indian sub-continent. The recent Paris climate agreement determined to keep the global mean temperature rise well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it within 1.5 °C. This global temperature rise would influence the ISM mechanism over the Indian sub-continent. This study examines the possible changes in the ISM characteristics at 1.5 and 2 °C specific warming levels (SWLs) with respect to the historical period. This analysis uses a set of 12 regional climate simulations under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments-South Asia (CORDEX-SA). The land as well as the oceans shows a warming signature due to the effect of anthropogenic forcings with much higher warming over land. The increase of global temperature to 1.5 °C (2 °C) SWL leads to an earlier onset of ISM over India by 7 (11) days in the model ensemble. The increasing land-sea temperature contrast gradually increases the strength of the Findlater jet (by 0.5–0.9 m/s), which transports more moisture towards land and causes higher rainfall (increase by 2–10%) over India. The study reveals that under a higher SWL of 2 °C the mean rainfall is augmented as compared to that under 1.5 °C. However, there exists uncertainty in the findings due to inter-model differences especially for the duration of ISM activity and the spatial distribution of rainfall at different SWLs. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CORDEX-SA; Indian summer monsoon; Onset; Rainfall; SWLs; Wind
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; computer simulation; future prospect; monsoon; precipitation intensity; seasonal variation
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/145759
作者单位	School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110067, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Maharana P.,Dimri A.P.,Choudhary A.. Future changes in Indian summer monsoon characteristics under 1.5 and 2 °C specific warming levels[J],2020,54(2020-01-02).
APA	Maharana P.,Dimri A.P.,&Choudhary A..(2020).Future changes in Indian summer monsoon characteristics under 1.5 and 2 °C specific warming levels.Climate Dynamics,54(2020-01-02).
MLA	Maharana P.,et al."Future changes in Indian summer monsoon characteristics under 1.5 and 2 °C specific warming levels".Climate Dynamics 54.2020-01-02(2020).